Caucus Results

Well, the Iowa Caucuses have come and gone, and the eye of the nation has been on New Hampshire. However, last Saturday, January 5, there was another caucus in Wyoming for the Republicans. Mike Huckabee took Iowa for the Republicans while Wyoming went for Mitt Romney, and on the Democrat side Barack Obama took the Iowa caucuses. However, due to superdelegates, Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead so far over Obama nationally so far.

Superdelegates are guaranteed delegates from each state that aren't pledged to a single candidate. The current results on CNN come from predictions of a superdelegate's actions or statements from the superdelegate. Superdelegates are typically governors, Senators, etc.

But, without further ado, the caucus results:

Iowa (Democrat)
Obama: 38%--16
Edwards: 30%--14
Clinton: 29%--15
Richardson: 2%--0
Biden: 1%--0
Uncommitted: 0%--0
Dodd: 0%--0
Gravel: 0%--0
Kucinich: 0%--0

Iowa (Republican)
Huckabee: 34%--17
Romney: 25%--12
Thompson: 13%--3
McCain: 13%--3
Paul: 10%--2
Giuliani: 4%--0
Hunter: 1%--0

Wyoming (Republican)
Romney: 67%--8
Thompson: 25%--3
Hunter: 8%--1
Giuliani: 0%--0
Huckabee: 0%--0
McCain: 0%--0
Paul: 0%--0

I wrote these with the percentage of the vote followed by the number of delegates awarded. Here are the current national numbers, including superdelegates. The percentage of total delegates awarded so far followed by the number of delegates that candidate has. Please note that the number of delegates awarded per state is left completely up to the party and that accounts for the disparity in the number of Democratic and Republican delegates. More Democratic superdelegates have been factored in as well.

Democrat
Clinton: 56%--169
Obama: 22%--66
Edwards: 16%--47
Richardson: 6%--19
Kucinich: 0%--1
Mike Gravel: 0%--0
Joe Biden: 0%--0*
Chris Dodd: 0%--0*

*These two have already dropped out, so you probably won't hear anymore of them on this blog.
Republican
Romney: 44%--26
Huckabee: 34%--20
Thompson: 10%--6
McCain: 5%--3
Paul: 3%--2
Giuliani: 2%--1
Hunter: 2%--1

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R
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My Take

Dems
The win in Iowa was great for Barack Obama. It puts him in the spotlight and gives him valuable momentum which he will need since Hillary Clinton already has a sizable corps of delegates on her side. John Edwards went all or nothing in Iowa, and only scraped by Clinton with a second place finish. This bad for him, seeing that he is much further behind in New Hampshire and the other early states than he was in Iowa (http://tinyurl.com/23hw94).

Richardson finished low, but his numbers elsewhere don't make it look like a comeback is in the making, so in my opinion it is safe to assume the Democratic race is now a three horse race. The race is close in South Carolina, but Nevada and Florida are currently strongly in Clinton's hands, so Obama will need strong showings in both New Hampshire and South Carolina to gain the traction necessary to carry him to the nomination.

Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are already out, Mike Gravel consistently polls 0%, and Dennis Kucinich is in the 1%-3%, so they are inconsequential barring an incredible showing in New Hampshire or South Carolina if they stay that long.

GOP
Mike Huckabee won by a surprisingly large margin over Mitt Romney, and while Romney did come back with a victory in Wyoming, the country and the media is talking about New Hampshire not Wyoming, so that will serve as little more than an addition to his ultimate total. Rudy Giuliani finished poorly, as expected, but still maintains his leads nationally as well as in Nevada and Florida--the two big primaries before Super Tuesday. However, his numbers remain low in New Hampshire and South Carolina where his rivals are strong.

John McCain is leading in New Hampshire, Huckabee leads in South Carolina, and Romney maintains a strong base in each. If Huckabee can take first or a close second in both, he can gain the momentum needed. Romney's early leads have been and are eroding, and after the abysmal Iowa showing he needs a victory and needs it soon. McCain needs New Hampshire since his South Carolina position is behind Romney, Huckabee, and even Giuliani. McCain is a popular figure who is good at getting the Independent vote out, so New Hampshire can be the key to his taking the nomination.

Fred Thompson maintains respectable numbers in all four early primaries, but he has too many rivals far ahead, the next primary or two is do or die for him, even more so for Ron Paul who has decent support in New Hampshire (10%) but is in the low single digits elsewhere. New Hampshire is his pivotal battle. Duncan Hunter, while taking a delegate in Wyoming, is at 1% or 2% elsewhere and is thus inconsequential.

Final Word
Like in a playoff series, the second matchup is much closer scrutinized than the first. I think that New Hampshire will give us a better idea since the fate of so many candidates, like I said earlier, depends on this state. Until New Hampshire has voted, I don't think anyone can accurately call this race.

Early State Info:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/nevada.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html