First off, let me apologize for no significant updates on the election over the last few weeks due to the inundation of several members with other commitments. However, I hope that in the future that our response to news will be as quick and as prompt as possible.
Now then, over the past weeks, John McCain and Barack Obama used momentum from Super Tuesday to forward their campaign efforts. Obama swept through the Democratic contests in Louisiana, Nebraska (caucus), Washington, Maine (caucus), Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Wisconsin, and Hawaii (caucus)—taking the lead in delegates over rival Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton has also officially won the New Mexico primary. John McCain has also roared forward, coming within 200 delegates of a clinched nomination by taking Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Wisconsin. Rival Mike Huckabee won in the Kansas caucus, but, after nearly a month, has not caught up to Mitt Romney’s total before Romney suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain.
This Tuesday is what some are now calling “Super Tuesday 2,” when the delegate rich states of Ohio and Texas vote and can give John McCain a clinch, and, on the Dems’ side, make or break Hillary Clinton.
Democrats (2,025 to win)
Barack Obama: 1,369 (185 Superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,267 (236 Superdelegates)
There are still 1,387 delegates left.
My Take
Everything is going Obama’s way. Clinton’s big state strategy, so secure a month ago, is in jeopardy as Obama has taken the lead in Texas and is closing the gap in Ohio. Considering how rich in delegates those two states are, if Hillary doesn’t take enough to close the gap her campaign will come crashing down. She probably knows this, and her desperation can be seen by her sudden desire to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates as well as challenging Texas’s established “two step” caucus and primary set up, especially considering Obama’s strength in caucuses.
Republicans (1,191 to win)
John McCain: 1,033 (66 Unpledged RNC)
Mitt Romney(out): 255
Mike Huckabee: 247 (3 Unpledged RNC)
Ron Paul: 21
There are 824 delegates left.
My Take
The race is pretty much over. Huckabee will need nearly all the remaining delegates plus support from Romney’s delegates—not likely considering Romney’s endorsement of McCain. John McCain will the Republican nominee, and after March 4 it will be official or within a few delegates.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Friday, February 29, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Fidel Castro Steps Down as Cuba's Leader
A year and a half after temporarily handing power over to his brother Raul, Fidel Castro has announced his intention to officially step down after 49 years or rule after his communist revolution swept through Cuba. He cited his health as the primary reason for stepping down. Cuba's National Assembly is on February 24, and most likely Castro's wishes will be met and Raul will become President and Commander-in-Chief.
Cuba was a under the hand of U.S. business interests until Castro seized power from the regime of Fulgencio Batista, dictator of Cuba until 1958, and eventually instituting a communist government with close ties with the Soviet Union. Over the years, Cuba was often the target of U.S. Cold War rhetoric. Its height in international relations came in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Soviets attempted to place nuclear weapons in Cuba, minutes away from Washington, D.C.
In opposition to the communist government, the United States has accepted all refugees who have made it to U.S. soil, a 90 mile journey. Additionally, an embargo, or ban on all trade, has been levied since 1962. Cuba enjoyed the favor of Soviet governments and had many "easy money" markets and special subsidies from Moscow, but beginning in the 1980s and accelerated by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba has been suffering economically, losing nearly 90% of its markets--Communist Eastern Europe. Many have called for an end to the embargo ranging from Steven Spielberg to the late Pope John Paul II, saying it would bring an end to Castro's rule.
Castro's retirement was greeted with joy by Cubans living in Florida--many descended from refugees--as well as hope that a freer, more democratic Cuba might follow. There have been voices in the Cuban government calling for change since the downturn of the Soviet Union, resulting in a Cuban downturn.
My Take
I honestly don't believe there will be that much change in Cuba--at least while Fidel is alive. Raul fought side by side with Fidel in the 1950s and believes in what his brother believes in. He will continue to pursue a repressive policy to maintain, and, in response to the limiting of the Cuban peoples' freedom, the government will not raise the embargo anytime soon. While Fidel is still alive, he can use some backroom power to make sure his policy, and Raul's, stay in effect. Once Fidel is dead and the depression does not abate, then there is a chance that turmoil might come to Cuba. Until then, expect business to go on as "normal" as you can call it on Cuba.
Cuba was a under the hand of U.S. business interests until Castro seized power from the regime of Fulgencio Batista, dictator of Cuba until 1958, and eventually instituting a communist government with close ties with the Soviet Union. Over the years, Cuba was often the target of U.S. Cold War rhetoric. Its height in international relations came in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Soviets attempted to place nuclear weapons in Cuba, minutes away from Washington, D.C.
In opposition to the communist government, the United States has accepted all refugees who have made it to U.S. soil, a 90 mile journey. Additionally, an embargo, or ban on all trade, has been levied since 1962. Cuba enjoyed the favor of Soviet governments and had many "easy money" markets and special subsidies from Moscow, but beginning in the 1980s and accelerated by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba has been suffering economically, losing nearly 90% of its markets--Communist Eastern Europe. Many have called for an end to the embargo ranging from Steven Spielberg to the late Pope John Paul II, saying it would bring an end to Castro's rule.
Castro's retirement was greeted with joy by Cubans living in Florida--many descended from refugees--as well as hope that a freer, more democratic Cuba might follow. There have been voices in the Cuban government calling for change since the downturn of the Soviet Union, resulting in a Cuban downturn.
My Take
I honestly don't believe there will be that much change in Cuba--at least while Fidel is alive. Raul fought side by side with Fidel in the 1950s and believes in what his brother believes in. He will continue to pursue a repressive policy to maintain, and, in response to the limiting of the Cuban peoples' freedom, the government will not raise the embargo anytime soon. While Fidel is still alive, he can use some backroom power to make sure his policy, and Raul's, stay in effect. Once Fidel is dead and the depression does not abate, then there is a chance that turmoil might come to Cuba. Until then, expect business to go on as "normal" as you can call it on Cuba.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
What's a Superdelegate?
According dictionary.com a superdelegate is “a party leader or elected public official chosen as an uncommitted delegate to a national political convention.” Only the Democrats have superdelegates, and they are chosen by the Democratic Party based on their status within the party. Superdelegates attend the Democratic National Convention and cast their own vote for a Presidential candidate, and do not necessarily have to follow the popular vote. Some of Michigan’s Superdelegates include Governor Granholm, U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow and U.S. Rep. John Dingell.
So what do you think? Should superdelegates hold this much power? Or should the popular vote in the Primary hold up at the National Convention?
Sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/17/2008.dems/index.html
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Quote de Jour
"Those who are ready to sacrifice freedom for security ultimately will lose both."
-Abraham Lincoln
-Abraham Lincoln
Monday, February 11, 2008
Quote de Jour
"The greatest threat to our [democratic] experiment will not come from those who would openly oppose us, but those who will silently follow us."
-Thomas Paine
-Thomas Paine
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Super Tuesday Explained
Ok guys so I know Super Tuesday has passed but this clip does a really good job of explaining what has happened over the last few months or so.
Let us know what you think.
Let us know what you think.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Election Update - Mitt Romney "Suspends" Campaign
Mitt Romney effectively ended his bid for the Presidency by suspending his campaign in order to provide the Republican party with unity heading into the general election. He made the announcement at the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference). He said that a drawn out GOP campaign would weaken and divide the party, making it easier for the Democratic candidate--Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton--to win the White House come November. He called for unity in the party against the threat of radical Islam and of surrender in the war on terror. Several notable conservative leaders, including Billy Graham, have already pledged support for McCain, while others, such as Sean Hannity, approach the Senator with caution. Mike Huckabee has stated that he has no plans of quitting any time soon.
Election Update
More accurate Super Tuesday delegate numbers are now available.
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Hillary Clinton: 1,033(193 Superdelegates)
Barack Obama: 937(106 Superdelegates)
Additionally, the New Mexico have been updated.
99% Reporting
Hillary Clinton: 49%(68,654)
Barack Obama: 48%(67,531)
My Take
Not much has changed. Hillary's lead has grown in New Mexico, so she will probably win, but it will only be a gain of one delegate, and the Democratic party is already looking towards future contests.
Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
John McCain: 714(17 Superdelegates)
Mitt Romney: 286(0 Superdelegates)
Mike Huckabee: 181(3 Superdelegates)
My Take
Romney's move opens up a lot of the conservative vote, especially in the caucuses where his performance was superb. The conservative vote might switch to Huckabee, making this a close election, but there is little room for error if Huckabee wants a majority. Huckabee's performance will improve, especially in the South, but it is my belief that John McCain will win the nomination.
Side Note
It certainly is ironic that what was once a contested GOP field has developed into dominance for Senator McCain while the Democrat field, previously epitomized by trends of single candidate dominace, is now so hotly contested. Many people predicted a divided GOP convention, but, if anything, a divided Democratic party is more likely. What will happen? Only time will tell, stay tuned.
Extra Information
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Election Update
More accurate Super Tuesday delegate numbers are now available.
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Hillary Clinton: 1,033(193 Superdelegates)
Barack Obama: 937(106 Superdelegates)
Additionally, the New Mexico have been updated.
99% Reporting
Hillary Clinton: 49%(68,654)
Barack Obama: 48%(67,531)
My Take
Not much has changed. Hillary's lead has grown in New Mexico, so she will probably win, but it will only be a gain of one delegate, and the Democratic party is already looking towards future contests.
Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
John McCain: 714(17 Superdelegates)
Mitt Romney: 286(0 Superdelegates)
Mike Huckabee: 181(3 Superdelegates)
My Take
Romney's move opens up a lot of the conservative vote, especially in the caucuses where his performance was superb. The conservative vote might switch to Huckabee, making this a close election, but there is little room for error if Huckabee wants a majority. Huckabee's performance will improve, especially in the South, but it is my belief that John McCain will win the nomination.
Side Note
It certainly is ironic that what was once a contested GOP field has developed into dominance for Senator McCain while the Democrat field, previously epitomized by trends of single candidate dominace, is now so hotly contested. Many people predicted a divided GOP convention, but, if anything, a divided Democratic party is more likely. What will happen? Only time will tell, stay tuned.
Extra Information
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Super Tuesday Results a Boon for Senators McCain and Obama
Yesterday was Super Tuesday. Twenty-four states held presidential primaries or caucuses: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia. For the Democrats, 1,681 delegates were up for grabs in 16 primaries and 7 caucuses while the Republicans had 1,020 delegates at stake in 15 primaries and 6 caucuses.
Democrats
At the time of this posting, all states have been called with the exception of New Mexico's primary, where Hillary Clinton holds a thin 200 vote lead.
98%reporting
Clinton: 66,173--49%
Obama: 65,963--48%
If I had to make a call, I'd go with Hillary Clinton based on other trends that I will explain later. Additionally, given how tight the rest of Super Tuesday was, this can be crucial. In the rest of the Super Tuesday competition, Barack Obama took 13 states: all six caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota) plus seven primaries (Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Utah), and Clinton won in 8 states, all primaries (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennesse). The final count was almost deadlocked, but Obama came through and is projected to win 840-850 delegates to Clinton's 830-840 when all is settled. This puts Barack Obama ahead in earned delegates, 635-630, but Senator Clinton's superdelegate advantage puts her ahead overall 823-741. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Republicans
On the Republican side, John McCain moved into full frontrunner status with 9 state wins, Mitt Romney picked up 7, and Mike Huckabee won in 5 states. Senator took several large states, all primaries (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma). Mitt Romney performed strongly in the caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota) as well as in the primaries in Massachusetts and Utah. Mike Huckabee won several southern primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee) and a caucus (West Virginia). John McCain has vaulted into a huge lead over Romney, second, and Mike Huckabee, third. 680-270-176-16 (Ron Paul remained in fourth). 1,191 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Noticeable Trends
Analyzing Super Tuesday results, I've noticed concrete trends in both parties.
Democrats
Both candidates were powerful in the Northeast and split the region rather evenly with Clinton holding an edge; Senator Clinton took Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York while Obama won in Delaware and Connecticut. In the South, there was another close race with Senator Clinton holding a slim lead; Alabama and Georgia went for Obama, while Clinton took Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Clinton was strong in both Western states--winning both Arizona and California while Obama won in Alaska. Obama carried the Midwest states of Kansas, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and the nations traditional "bellwether," Missouri. Additionally, Obama won in all the caucus states, a testament to the loyalty of his supporters and the skill of his organization.
Republicans
A much more decisive race, John McCain was a powerhouse in the Northeast and West, winning Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. He also picked up victories in South (Oklahoma) and Midwest by taking Illinois and Missouri. Mike Huckabee's support rested firmly in the South as he won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Mitt Romney was able to win primaries in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and Utah, which has a high Mormon population. Utah also translated into Midwest success for Romney--he went on to take Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Romney's campaign organization was espoused by a near sweep of the caucuses--Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska; he has won in several other previous caucuses. Huckabee won the West Virginia caucus. Ron Paul was able to gather some delegates from caucuses, where organization and fervor matters.
The Bellwhether State
Throughout this post, I've referred to Missouri as the "bellwhether state." I am referring to Missouri's uncanny ability to predict elections. Missouri is a central state with liberals and conservatives, so it is a better indicator than Texas or Massachusetts. Beginning in 1904, Missouri has voted for the winner of the Presidential election every time except 1956 and has been within 2% of the national popular vote. Missouri has also been an economic indicator as well as political.
Delegate Apportioning
How a state distributes delegates in a primary or caucus is entirely up to the state; it can be based on county, district, by percentage, or the winner can be awarded all the delegates. It can also affect momentum depending on how it goes, as seen in Super Tuesday. For the Republicans, Huckabee took Alabama with 41%, and John McCain had 37%. Huckabee was awarded 20 delegates while McCain took home 16. In California, however, McCain got 42% to Mitt Romney's 34%, but McCain took 116 delegates to Romney's 3. In Missouri, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney took 33%, 32%, and 29% respectively, but McCain won all 58 delegates. All Super Tuesday states were proportional on the Democrat side.
West Virginia Controversy
West Virginia's Republican caucus had a little bit of machine style dealings on Tuesday. Romney came in expecting to win the winner-take-all state and led in the early balloting. Huckabee, McCain, and Romney moved on to the second ballot, but Ron Paul was disqualified. Romney stood comfortably in the high 40% range, but the other three candidate's delegates made a deal. Allegedly acting on orders from campaign coordinators, most of McCain's votes defected to Huckabee while all of Paul's vote caucused for Huckabee. As a result, Huckabee won a majority and all 18 delegates. Ron Paul received 3 delegates for their aid. Mitt Romney officials said that this was just the kind of dealing a Washington-insider like McCain would pull--even pulling the strings for a "tax and spend" governor.
My Take
Democrats
The Democrat race emerged with no clear cut nominee so the race will continue on. Obama gained some momentum by dominating the Midwest, a much larger region than the Northeast or West, where Clinton holds an edge. Additionally, there are several democratic caucuses in February alone, where Obama is clearly stronger. Midwestern states will be holding primaries as well. If I HAD to guess, I'd say Obama ekes it out in the end.
Republicans
John McCain has clearly taken control of this race, surging nearly 600 delegates, and is now over half way to the nomination. A conservative's "worst fear" came true as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee split the conservative vote, allowing McCain, who has held various left leaning positions and allies, to step in. Strong conservatives would be further incensed by the Huckabee-McCain-Paul deal, possibly portraying McCain as the big government dealer many fear him to be. However, as long as Romney and Huckabee are in the race, the effect will continue. Some have even said that Huckabee is staying in to help McCain by hurting Romney. Mitt Romney needs a breakthrough fast to reach southern conservatives and will need to translate Midwest success into a virtual sweep if that is to be his base. Ron Paul is attracting little attention and would probably need Romney and Huckabee to drop out and conservatives are given more insight into his views. If I HAD to guess, I'd say it looks like smooth sailing for McCain from here on in, and there is a real possibility it will be.
Additional Info.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/romney-camp-accuses-mccain-huckabee-of-shady-w.-va.-deal-2008-02-05.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080205
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Democrats
At the time of this posting, all states have been called with the exception of New Mexico's primary, where Hillary Clinton holds a thin 200 vote lead.
98%reporting
Clinton: 66,173--49%
Obama: 65,963--48%
If I had to make a call, I'd go with Hillary Clinton based on other trends that I will explain later. Additionally, given how tight the rest of Super Tuesday was, this can be crucial. In the rest of the Super Tuesday competition, Barack Obama took 13 states: all six caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota) plus seven primaries (Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Utah), and Clinton won in 8 states, all primaries (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennesse). The final count was almost deadlocked, but Obama came through and is projected to win 840-850 delegates to Clinton's 830-840 when all is settled. This puts Barack Obama ahead in earned delegates, 635-630, but Senator Clinton's superdelegate advantage puts her ahead overall 823-741. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Republicans
On the Republican side, John McCain moved into full frontrunner status with 9 state wins, Mitt Romney picked up 7, and Mike Huckabee won in 5 states. Senator took several large states, all primaries (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma). Mitt Romney performed strongly in the caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota) as well as in the primaries in Massachusetts and Utah. Mike Huckabee won several southern primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee) and a caucus (West Virginia). John McCain has vaulted into a huge lead over Romney, second, and Mike Huckabee, third. 680-270-176-16 (Ron Paul remained in fourth). 1,191 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Noticeable Trends
Analyzing Super Tuesday results, I've noticed concrete trends in both parties.
Democrats
Both candidates were powerful in the Northeast and split the region rather evenly with Clinton holding an edge; Senator Clinton took Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York while Obama won in Delaware and Connecticut. In the South, there was another close race with Senator Clinton holding a slim lead; Alabama and Georgia went for Obama, while Clinton took Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Clinton was strong in both Western states--winning both Arizona and California while Obama won in Alaska. Obama carried the Midwest states of Kansas, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and the nations traditional "bellwether," Missouri. Additionally, Obama won in all the caucus states, a testament to the loyalty of his supporters and the skill of his organization.
Republicans
A much more decisive race, John McCain was a powerhouse in the Northeast and West, winning Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. He also picked up victories in South (Oklahoma) and Midwest by taking Illinois and Missouri. Mike Huckabee's support rested firmly in the South as he won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Mitt Romney was able to win primaries in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and Utah, which has a high Mormon population. Utah also translated into Midwest success for Romney--he went on to take Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Romney's campaign organization was espoused by a near sweep of the caucuses--Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska; he has won in several other previous caucuses. Huckabee won the West Virginia caucus. Ron Paul was able to gather some delegates from caucuses, where organization and fervor matters.
The Bellwhether State
Throughout this post, I've referred to Missouri as the "bellwhether state." I am referring to Missouri's uncanny ability to predict elections. Missouri is a central state with liberals and conservatives, so it is a better indicator than Texas or Massachusetts. Beginning in 1904, Missouri has voted for the winner of the Presidential election every time except 1956 and has been within 2% of the national popular vote. Missouri has also been an economic indicator as well as political.
Delegate Apportioning
How a state distributes delegates in a primary or caucus is entirely up to the state; it can be based on county, district, by percentage, or the winner can be awarded all the delegates. It can also affect momentum depending on how it goes, as seen in Super Tuesday. For the Republicans, Huckabee took Alabama with 41%, and John McCain had 37%. Huckabee was awarded 20 delegates while McCain took home 16. In California, however, McCain got 42% to Mitt Romney's 34%, but McCain took 116 delegates to Romney's 3. In Missouri, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney took 33%, 32%, and 29% respectively, but McCain won all 58 delegates. All Super Tuesday states were proportional on the Democrat side.
West Virginia Controversy
West Virginia's Republican caucus had a little bit of machine style dealings on Tuesday. Romney came in expecting to win the winner-take-all state and led in the early balloting. Huckabee, McCain, and Romney moved on to the second ballot, but Ron Paul was disqualified. Romney stood comfortably in the high 40% range, but the other three candidate's delegates made a deal. Allegedly acting on orders from campaign coordinators, most of McCain's votes defected to Huckabee while all of Paul's vote caucused for Huckabee. As a result, Huckabee won a majority and all 18 delegates. Ron Paul received 3 delegates for their aid. Mitt Romney officials said that this was just the kind of dealing a Washington-insider like McCain would pull--even pulling the strings for a "tax and spend" governor.
My Take
Democrats
The Democrat race emerged with no clear cut nominee so the race will continue on. Obama gained some momentum by dominating the Midwest, a much larger region than the Northeast or West, where Clinton holds an edge. Additionally, there are several democratic caucuses in February alone, where Obama is clearly stronger. Midwestern states will be holding primaries as well. If I HAD to guess, I'd say Obama ekes it out in the end.
Republicans
John McCain has clearly taken control of this race, surging nearly 600 delegates, and is now over half way to the nomination. A conservative's "worst fear" came true as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee split the conservative vote, allowing McCain, who has held various left leaning positions and allies, to step in. Strong conservatives would be further incensed by the Huckabee-McCain-Paul deal, possibly portraying McCain as the big government dealer many fear him to be. However, as long as Romney and Huckabee are in the race, the effect will continue. Some have even said that Huckabee is staying in to help McCain by hurting Romney. Mitt Romney needs a breakthrough fast to reach southern conservatives and will need to translate Midwest success into a virtual sweep if that is to be his base. Ron Paul is attracting little attention and would probably need Romney and Huckabee to drop out and conservatives are given more insight into his views. If I HAD to guess, I'd say it looks like smooth sailing for McCain from here on in, and there is a real possibility it will be.
Additional Info.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/romney-camp-accuses-mccain-huckabee-of-shady-w.-va.-deal-2008-02-05.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080205
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Quote de Jour
"Give us the child who wants to learn, give us the people in need of work, give us the veterans who need our care. We say give us the economy to rebuild and this war to end, give us this nation to heal, this world to lead, this moment to seize."
-Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton's close to a speech made late Tuesday night. More on the results of Super Tuesday to come very soon.
-Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton's close to a speech made late Tuesday night. More on the results of Super Tuesday to come very soon.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Quote of the Day
"She is more conservative...I will campaign for Hillary if he {McCain} gets the nomination."
-Well known Conservative author and pundit Ann Coulter
-Well known Conservative author and pundit Ann Coulter
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Election Update - Giuliani and Edwards Drop Out
In the last ten days there have been 4 contests in 3 states. The Democrats have held their primaries in South Carolina and Florida, and the Republicans have held their Florida primary as well as a caucus in Maine. Barack Obama convincingly won the South Carolina primary with 55% of the vote--doubling up on Hillary Clinton's 27%. Senator Clinton won Florida, but, like Michigan, the Democratic party stripped Florida of its delegates for moving up their primary. For the Republicans, John McCain won Florida with 36% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 31%. Rudy Giuliani won 15% of the vote. In Maine, Mitt Romney won with relative ease with 52% of the vote, and is projected to take all 18 delegates. John McCain came in second in Maine with 21%, and Ron Paul closely followed with 19%. Please note that this is with 68% of the caucus reporting.
After the Florida primaries, both John Edwards on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side dropped out. The Edwards campaign never gained traction and couldn't rebound from a disappointing second place finish in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani bet his entire campaign on Florida, but was swallowed up by the momentum Governor Romney and Senator McCain brought in by their earlier victories. Rudy Giuliani has endorsed John McCain.
Super Tuesday is this Tuesday, February 5, and 24 states will hold a caucus or primary.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the leader in total delegates to date:
Hillary Clinton: 232
Barack Obama: 158
John Edwards(OUT): 26
On the Republican side, John McCain has moved into the lead for total delegates with Mitt Romney coming in a close second.
John McCain: 97
Mitt Romney: 92
Mike Huckabee: 29
Ron Paul: 6
My Take
Democrats
The race has come down to two candidates at last, and Super Tuesday will the pivotal fight. Hillary Clinton leads in several delegate rich states, but Barack Obama has made gains both in those states and nationally. Whether it will be enough, we shall see. On an interesting note, Senator Clinton's lead is due mostly to superdelegates, and Barack Obama has the lead in delegates won in caucuses and primaries.
Republicans
Everything seems to be going John McCain's way. He won Florida and is leading in many Super Tuesday states according to Detroit Free Press article. Although he has taken Maine, Mitt Romney will likely gain little momentum since the coverage has been sparse like it was in Wyoming. Mike Huckabee can hurt Mitt Romney in the South since both are courting the conservative wing of the GOP while John McCain has the moderates solidly in his camp. Ron Paul is a very long shot, and, barring a Super Tuesday miracle, should be just about done come Wednesday. He is polling well in Alaska, and if he can win there and pull off a miracle in other states, something may begin.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080203/NEWS15/802030591/1215
After the Florida primaries, both John Edwards on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side dropped out. The Edwards campaign never gained traction and couldn't rebound from a disappointing second place finish in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani bet his entire campaign on Florida, but was swallowed up by the momentum Governor Romney and Senator McCain brought in by their earlier victories. Rudy Giuliani has endorsed John McCain.
Super Tuesday is this Tuesday, February 5, and 24 states will hold a caucus or primary.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the leader in total delegates to date:
Hillary Clinton: 232
Barack Obama: 158
John Edwards(OUT): 26
On the Republican side, John McCain has moved into the lead for total delegates with Mitt Romney coming in a close second.
John McCain: 97
Mitt Romney: 92
Mike Huckabee: 29
Ron Paul: 6
My Take
Democrats
The race has come down to two candidates at last, and Super Tuesday will the pivotal fight. Hillary Clinton leads in several delegate rich states, but Barack Obama has made gains both in those states and nationally. Whether it will be enough, we shall see. On an interesting note, Senator Clinton's lead is due mostly to superdelegates, and Barack Obama has the lead in delegates won in caucuses and primaries.
Republicans
Everything seems to be going John McCain's way. He won Florida and is leading in many Super Tuesday states according to Detroit Free Press article. Although he has taken Maine, Mitt Romney will likely gain little momentum since the coverage has been sparse like it was in Wyoming. Mike Huckabee can hurt Mitt Romney in the South since both are courting the conservative wing of the GOP while John McCain has the moderates solidly in his camp. Ron Paul is a very long shot, and, barring a Super Tuesday miracle, should be just about done come Wednesday. He is polling well in Alaska, and if he can win there and pull off a miracle in other states, something may begin.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080203/NEWS15/802030591/1215
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