Election Update - Giuliani and Edwards Drop Out

In the last ten days there have been 4 contests in 3 states. The Democrats have held their primaries in South Carolina and Florida, and the Republicans have held their Florida primary as well as a caucus in Maine. Barack Obama convincingly won the South Carolina primary with 55% of the vote--doubling up on Hillary Clinton's 27%. Senator Clinton won Florida, but, like Michigan, the Democratic party stripped Florida of its delegates for moving up their primary. For the Republicans, John McCain won Florida with 36% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 31%. Rudy Giuliani won 15% of the vote. In Maine, Mitt Romney won with relative ease with 52% of the vote, and is projected to take all 18 delegates. John McCain came in second in Maine with 21%, and Ron Paul closely followed with 19%. Please note that this is with 68% of the caucus reporting.

After the Florida primaries, both John Edwards on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side dropped out. The Edwards campaign never gained traction and couldn't rebound from a disappointing second place finish in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani bet his entire campaign on Florida, but was swallowed up by the momentum Governor Romney and Senator McCain brought in by their earlier victories. Rudy Giuliani has endorsed John McCain.

Super Tuesday is this Tuesday, February 5, and 24 states will hold a caucus or primary.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the leader in total delegates to date:

Hillary Clinton: 232
Barack Obama: 158
John Edwards(OUT): 26

On the Republican side, John McCain has moved into the lead for total delegates with Mitt Romney coming in a close second.

John McCain: 97
Mitt Romney: 92
Mike Huckabee: 29
Ron Paul: 6

My Take
Democrats
The race has come down to two candidates at last, and Super Tuesday will the pivotal fight. Hillary Clinton leads in several delegate rich states, but Barack Obama has made gains both in those states and nationally. Whether it will be enough, we shall see. On an interesting note, Senator Clinton's lead is due mostly to superdelegates, and Barack Obama has the lead in delegates won in caucuses and primaries.

Republicans
Everything seems to be going John McCain's way. He won Florida and is leading in many Super Tuesday states according to Detroit Free Press article. Although he has taken Maine, Mitt Romney will likely gain little momentum since the coverage has been sparse like it was in Wyoming. Mike Huckabee can hurt Mitt Romney in the South since both are courting the conservative wing of the GOP while John McCain has the moderates solidly in his camp. Ron Paul is a very long shot, and, barring a Super Tuesday miracle, should be just about done come Wednesday. He is polling well in Alaska, and if he can win there and pull off a miracle in other states, something may begin.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080203/NEWS15/802030591/1215