Senator Barack Obama won the Mississippi primary yesterday and has been projected the winner of March 4's Texas caucus. He took 61% of the Mississippi vote and is currently at 56% in the Texas caucus with 41% reporting. Texas holds both a primary, which Senator Hillary Clinton won, and a caucus depending on district or county. Senator John McCain won the Mississippi primary and has increased his delegate count to 1,325.
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,611 (207 superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,480 (237 superdelegates)
There are 931 delegates unawarded or uncommitted; however there are not enough pledged delegates left for either to realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time and can swing the election either way.
My Take
Although neither can clinch victory, Clinton is falling into a deeper hole and will most likely only be able to take the nomination by the superdelegate vote. Buth, this would embitter mainstream Democrats since having the party elite choose the candidate would, effectively, invalidate their vote since Obama has taken the pledged delegates from the states by a wide margin. I believe, in an effort to best preserve party unity, the superdelegates would affirm the party's popular vote, and Obama would win the nomination unless Clinton surges in the remaining primaries and begins to look like a better general election candidate. Incidentally, Clinton has lost a superdelegate through his resignation in the New York Spitzer scandal.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=MS
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Obama wins Wyoming Caucus; Dems debate fate of MI/FL Delegates
On Saturday, March 8, Barack Obama won the Democratic Wyoming caucus. He took 61% of the caucus to 38% for Hillary Clinton. The overall delegate total was little changed by Obama’s 7-5 victory. Mitt Romney won the Republican Wyoming caucus in January.
Overall Delegate Count (2,024 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,527 (1,328 pledged; 199 super)
Hillary Clinton: 1,428 (1,190 pledged; 238 super)
There are still 1,066 delegates to be awarded, however there are only around 750 pledged delegates left, and neither can realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time.
My Take
This makes little difference. The major contest is still Pennsylvania on April 22 and Mississippi this Tuesday, but it is so long until the Pennsylvania primaries that a victory by either in Mississippi would carry no significant momentum. On a side note, this victory attests to Obama’s caucus strength since in the individual counties he won with at least 60% of the vote while receiving around 45% support in those that he lost.
Michigan/Florida
More important for the Democratic race is the fate of the delegates from Michigan and Florida. For moving their primary up past February 5, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped the states of their delegates to deter other states from doing the same. Now, with the race so close, there is talk of what to do with the states’ delegates. Some say that the votes should stand, but neither campaigned in either state and Obama was not even on the Michigan ballot. Some have called for a revote, but that would cost $10 million in Michigan and $20 million in Florida. There have been also calls for a caucus or Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has stated that mail-in ballots might be utilized to keep costs low. The question of who picks up the cost is the major stumbling block, as Governor Granholm of Michigan has stated that no Michigan tax dollars will be used for the effort, and Dean asserted that the DNC will not foot the bill to make up for Michigan’s and Florida’s decision to break party rules.
My Take
Personally, I believe that a caucus should be held in each state so cost is down and it is more of a party decision since I believe that a party’s candidate should be chosen primarily by the party, and I originally stood in solidarity with DNC in its effort to maintain some control over the nominating process. But, I think in the end funds will be gathered by some means for a primary redo. But, the race is too close to ignore two big states. However, results from a contest with only Clinton on the ballot cannot stand, and mail-ins would be a horrible mess to distribute and collect to count—not to mention coordinating mailing for a certain day by millions that live in Florida and Michigan. What do you guys think should be done?
Final Note
Ron Paul has, in effect, ended his campaign by acknowledging he will not be the nominee or that there is hope for a brokered convention in which his beliefs and principles can make it onto the Republican platform. He has vowed to continue to fight for his beliefs and for change in America.
Edit, 3/11/08-
Ron Paul has affirmed in an interview that he has, in fact, not ended his campaign.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WY
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/09/michigan.florida/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/florida.michigan/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/ron.paul/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703061.html
Overall Delegate Count (2,024 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,527 (1,328 pledged; 199 super)
Hillary Clinton: 1,428 (1,190 pledged; 238 super)
There are still 1,066 delegates to be awarded, however there are only around 750 pledged delegates left, and neither can realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time.
My Take
This makes little difference. The major contest is still Pennsylvania on April 22 and Mississippi this Tuesday, but it is so long until the Pennsylvania primaries that a victory by either in Mississippi would carry no significant momentum. On a side note, this victory attests to Obama’s caucus strength since in the individual counties he won with at least 60% of the vote while receiving around 45% support in those that he lost.
Michigan/Florida
More important for the Democratic race is the fate of the delegates from Michigan and Florida. For moving their primary up past February 5, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped the states of their delegates to deter other states from doing the same. Now, with the race so close, there is talk of what to do with the states’ delegates. Some say that the votes should stand, but neither campaigned in either state and Obama was not even on the Michigan ballot. Some have called for a revote, but that would cost $10 million in Michigan and $20 million in Florida. There have been also calls for a caucus or Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has stated that mail-in ballots might be utilized to keep costs low. The question of who picks up the cost is the major stumbling block, as Governor Granholm of Michigan has stated that no Michigan tax dollars will be used for the effort, and Dean asserted that the DNC will not foot the bill to make up for Michigan’s and Florida’s decision to break party rules.
My Take
Personally, I believe that a caucus should be held in each state so cost is down and it is more of a party decision since I believe that a party’s candidate should be chosen primarily by the party, and I originally stood in solidarity with DNC in its effort to maintain some control over the nominating process. But, I think in the end funds will be gathered by some means for a primary redo. But, the race is too close to ignore two big states. However, results from a contest with only Clinton on the ballot cannot stand, and mail-ins would be a horrible mess to distribute and collect to count—not to mention coordinating mailing for a certain day by millions that live in Florida and Michigan. What do you guys think should be done?
Final Note
Ron Paul has, in effect, ended his campaign by acknowledging he will not be the nominee or that there is hope for a brokered convention in which his beliefs and principles can make it onto the Republican platform. He has vowed to continue to fight for his beliefs and for change in America.
Edit, 3/11/08-
Ron Paul has affirmed in an interview that he has, in fact, not ended his campaign.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WY
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/09/michigan.florida/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/florida.michigan/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/ron.paul/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703061.html
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
McCain wraps the nomination; Clinton and Obama march on
Yesterday, Tuesday, March 4th (dubbed "Crucial Tuesday" by some analysts) was a make or break day for both Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton. Tuesday's results are as follows:
Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Texas- 51% (majority)
Ohio- 54% (majority)
Vermont- 39%
Rhode Island- 58% (majority)
Barack Obama
Texas- 48%
Ohio- 44%
Vermont- 59% (majority)
Rhode Island- 41%
My analysis: Crucial Tuesday would have been the final test for Hillary Clinton; if she had lost Texas or Ohio her campaign would likely have been over and with that the Democratic primary race. Clinton's 10 point win in Ohio was a huge surge for her campaign, with that she snapped Obama's 11 primary winning streak. When the final results for Texas came in, Clinton had only a 3 point lead but she can still claim victory in the Lone Star State. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic primaries usually use a proportional delegate count; 51% of the Texas vote means (more or less) 51% of the delegate count. Obama had 102 delegate lead before Crucial Tuesday votes, and now he commands a (CNN projected) 96 delegate lead. As you can see, although Clinton came out victorious in three of the primaries, the delegate count shifted very little due to the proportional delegate distribution. Clinton's strategy at this point will be to win Pennsylvania and use her superdelegate support to win the nomination; Obama's chief strategy at this point is to basically derail Clinton's strategy by strong campaigning for the April 22 competition in Pennsylvania.
In Texas, Hillary Clinton won a majority of Latino voters, older voters, less educated (high school or less), voters on the issue of Health Care, and voters who decided in recent weeks. Clinton's win among Latino voters is evidence of enduring Latino support from the administration of Bill Clinton. Older voters typically support Hillary Clinton and that trend has held true in every primary and caucus so far. Less educated voters in Texas voting for Clinton can be seen as a reflection of Clinton's strong working class support. Clinton's win amongst Health Care voters is a reflection of her strong and well-outlined plan for health care, and her win among voters who recently decided who to vote for is a reflection both of her strong anti-Obama ads being run in the past few days and her strong performance in last week's debate.
Obama took a majority of higher educated voters, the black vote, the youth vote, and voters on the issue if Iraq. Obama's strong performance in higher educated voters is likely a reflection of Obama's strong support on college campuses: most college voters also fall into the youth bracket. Obama's support from blacks and the youth have been a staple of his campaign and those two demographics have consistently supported Obama. Voters on Iraq favor Obama for his anti-war stance on the war since its inception and also because Clinton voted to approve the war.
GOP
John McCain (majorities in every race)
Texas- 51%
Ohio- 60%
Vermont- 72%
Rhode Island- 65%
Mike Huckabee
Texas- 38%
Ohio- 31%
Vermont- 14%
Rhode Island- 22%
Ron Paul
Texas- 5%
Ohio- 5%
Vermont- 7%
Rhode Island- 7%
My analysis: John McCain locked the nomination on Crucial Tuesday, winning all four of the states by 13 point margins (or higher) and cruising past the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. McCain currently sits at 1, 289 projected delegates, a comfortable margin past the needed delegate count. What this means is that McCain will be able to spend the next two months focusing more on emphasizing his own strengths and downplaying his Democratic rivals while infighting in the Democratic party will detract from their own anti-McCain rhetoric. This extra time helps McCain to play up his strengths and prepare for the Democratic assault nearing the general election. Mike Huckabee, expecting greater success in the March 4 primaries, backed out of the race earlier today saying "[I] Wish it would have ended differently, but it is what it is." Strangely enough, Ron Paul still considers the race to be on, his website* has no indication of Paul dropping out of the race. In addition, today McCain received the official endorsement of President George W. Bush at the White House. Now that the primary season for the Republicans is over, I anticipate a full GOP backing of McCain. Although many right-wing pundits are still withholding support for McCain, I believe that soon they will give McCain their full endorsements and prepare along with him for the upcoming general election.
Sources used: (apologies for the inundation, but this is a complete list.)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#RI
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/huckabee/index.html
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/
Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Texas- 51% (majority)
Ohio- 54% (majority)
Vermont- 39%
Rhode Island- 58% (majority)
Barack Obama
Texas- 48%
Ohio- 44%
Vermont- 59% (majority)
Rhode Island- 41%
My analysis: Crucial Tuesday would have been the final test for Hillary Clinton; if she had lost Texas or Ohio her campaign would likely have been over and with that the Democratic primary race. Clinton's 10 point win in Ohio was a huge surge for her campaign, with that she snapped Obama's 11 primary winning streak. When the final results for Texas came in, Clinton had only a 3 point lead but she can still claim victory in the Lone Star State. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic primaries usually use a proportional delegate count; 51% of the Texas vote means (more or less) 51% of the delegate count. Obama had 102 delegate lead before Crucial Tuesday votes, and now he commands a (CNN projected) 96 delegate lead. As you can see, although Clinton came out victorious in three of the primaries, the delegate count shifted very little due to the proportional delegate distribution. Clinton's strategy at this point will be to win Pennsylvania and use her superdelegate support to win the nomination; Obama's chief strategy at this point is to basically derail Clinton's strategy by strong campaigning for the April 22 competition in Pennsylvania.
In Texas, Hillary Clinton won a majority of Latino voters, older voters, less educated (high school or less), voters on the issue of Health Care, and voters who decided in recent weeks. Clinton's win among Latino voters is evidence of enduring Latino support from the administration of Bill Clinton. Older voters typically support Hillary Clinton and that trend has held true in every primary and caucus so far. Less educated voters in Texas voting for Clinton can be seen as a reflection of Clinton's strong working class support. Clinton's win amongst Health Care voters is a reflection of her strong and well-outlined plan for health care, and her win among voters who recently decided who to vote for is a reflection both of her strong anti-Obama ads being run in the past few days and her strong performance in last week's debate.
Obama took a majority of higher educated voters, the black vote, the youth vote, and voters on the issue if Iraq. Obama's strong performance in higher educated voters is likely a reflection of Obama's strong support on college campuses: most college voters also fall into the youth bracket. Obama's support from blacks and the youth have been a staple of his campaign and those two demographics have consistently supported Obama. Voters on Iraq favor Obama for his anti-war stance on the war since its inception and also because Clinton voted to approve the war.
GOP
John McCain (majorities in every race)
Texas- 51%
Ohio- 60%
Vermont- 72%
Rhode Island- 65%
Mike Huckabee
Texas- 38%
Ohio- 31%
Vermont- 14%
Rhode Island- 22%
Ron Paul
Texas- 5%
Ohio- 5%
Vermont- 7%
Rhode Island- 7%
My analysis: John McCain locked the nomination on Crucial Tuesday, winning all four of the states by 13 point margins (or higher) and cruising past the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. McCain currently sits at 1, 289 projected delegates, a comfortable margin past the needed delegate count. What this means is that McCain will be able to spend the next two months focusing more on emphasizing his own strengths and downplaying his Democratic rivals while infighting in the Democratic party will detract from their own anti-McCain rhetoric. This extra time helps McCain to play up his strengths and prepare for the Democratic assault nearing the general election. Mike Huckabee, expecting greater success in the March 4 primaries, backed out of the race earlier today saying "[I] Wish it would have ended differently, but it is what it is." Strangely enough, Ron Paul still considers the race to be on, his website* has no indication of Paul dropping out of the race. In addition, today McCain received the official endorsement of President George W. Bush at the White House. Now that the primary season for the Republicans is over, I anticipate a full GOP backing of McCain. Although many right-wing pundits are still withholding support for McCain, I believe that soon they will give McCain their full endorsements and prepare along with him for the upcoming general election.
Sources used: (apologies for the inundation, but this is a complete list.)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#RI
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/huckabee/index.html
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/
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