Tuesday, August 12, the Russian and Georgian governments agreed to a truce. The peace, produced by negotiations run by French President, and current EU President, Sarkozy entails a Six-point plan includes return of troops to pre-war positions as well as providing aid for civilians. The treaty, according to Sarkozy, "underlines, respects, guarantees Georgia's territorial integrity," and that the countries involved in the plan want to make it long-term.
However, the ceasefire does not seem to be in effect. On August 13, a convoy of Russian armored vehicles was seen leaving Gori--but going South, deeper into Georgia, not North. One Russian soldier reportedly shouted at reporters, “Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi [the Georgian capital].” Russian troops stopped just miles from Tbilisi. Georgian resistance in Ossetia was limited to isolated sniper fire as the bulk of the Georgian Army rallied around the capital, limited to old rocket launchers and vintage cannons to resist Russian armor. In addition to Russian soldiers, Abkhazian and Ossetian militants were also seen entering Georgia after reportedly looting ethnic Georgian homes within Ossetia and Abkhazia, on Abkhazian, laughing at the retreating Georgians, reportedly said that the Georgians received “American training in running away.” In response, President Saakashvili has announced that Georgia is leaving the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), an alliance of the states that made up the Soviet Union (Georgia, Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine). Saakashvili has called it a final farewell to a relic of the Soviet Union.
In response to renewed belligerence, the U.S. and Britain have made new threats of Russia’s removal from the G-8, some Western politicians have even referred to the group by its Cold War name, the G-7, as well as threats of barring Russia from the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The crisis has shown rifts among NATO, with other nations response not being as strong as that of the United States and Great Britain. The U.S. boycotted a NATO meeting with Russia, NATO cancelled joint naval exercises with Russia, and President Bush has sent Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Europe. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has also announced that Russia will need to ask for permission to return to Ukrainian naval bases. Finally, Poland and the U.S. have finalized a controversial deal for a missile shield placed in Poland with radar stations in the Czech Republic. In exchange for an unspecified number of U.S. Patriot missiles, Poland gives the U.S. the right to install 10 missile defense interceptors in Poland. The U.S. has also begun to send humanitarian aid to Georgia, under President Bush’s stern warning to Russia not to interfere.
In response, Russia has told Georgia that they can forget about annexing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, declaring her borders “limited,” and has issued an ultimatum to the U.S.: Friendship with Georgia, or long-term partnership with Russia, which is included on nuclear negotiations with North Korea and Iran. Meanwhile, Russian troops have reportedly advanced past Gori and Senaki and stopped just short of Tbilisi and Kutaisi, the second largest city in Georgia, and has allegedly launched missile strikes into Poti on the Black Sea, aimed at destroying what ships Georgia has. Russian criticism has been more focused on Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian President, calling him a tool and project of the United States and the West.
Finally, despite more recent reports by U.S. and Russian officials that indicate that Russia was planning on pulling out of Georgia later today, Russian military convoys were reportedly scene advancing towards Poti and Kutaisi while full blown Russian T-72 tanks were scene leaving Gori in the direction of Tbilisi. U.S. officials estimate Russian forces at 15,000 strong, up from initial estimates of 8-10,000.
My Take
I cannot help but laugh at the stupidity of Western diplomats in their dealings with Russia. It should come as no surprise that Russia is breaking this truce, if it ever began to pull back. It should come as no surprise that Moscow cannot be taken it at its word. One needs simply to look at history--old and recent. There is a reason one of Germany’s roles in European affairs was to keep the Russians out of Europe--whether it was the Prussians keeping out the Tsars or West Germany being the first buffer against the Commissars. RUSSIA CAN’T BE TRUSTED. People often learn in school about Senator McCarthy’s Anti-Communist hearings and about how he went too far. Not many learn that in some of his accusations he was correct--the Soviets really had a major spying operation in America and the U.S. government during World War II, when we were “friends” with the Soviets. The IMF (International Monetary Fund), set up by the great economist John Maynard Keynes, was also set up by a Communist in the Treasury Department with a built in mechanism to ruin the U.S. that wasn’t realized until, just in the nick of time, Richard Nixon was President. In 2001, nearly 10 years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the U.S. finally caught Robert Hanssen--a high level F.B.I. official who was a spy for the Russians.
Russia could not be trusted then and cannot be trusted now. They apparently agree to a ceasefire and to pull out of Georgia, but Russian tanks are still running around Georgia’s biggest cities. And Joseph Stalin publicly promised free elections in Eastern Europe. The stepping up of anti-Saakashvili rhetoric should come as no surprise to anyone with a basic knowledge of Russia. As I said in my previous post, if undeterred Russia is going to try to do what is in their interest--the removal of Saakashvili’s government whether by force--covert or otherwise--or a prolonged military presence forcing Saakashvili to resign to save Georgia’s sovereignty.
On a side note, this brings to light the need for America’s energy independence. Europe has been relatively silent, except for a few voices, due to Russia’s control of oil. Russia’s recent post-Cold War resurgence is due to the massive surpluses they have been running thanks to oil exports. It’s sleek, new gear, not old Soviet materials, that are rolling into Georgia. The most prudent course of action is an “All of the Above” approach favored by many, including former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, that entails lifting all drilling bans, funding for research and development such as wind and solar, nuclear power, and even properly inflating our tires--everything. We cannot sustain shipping $700 billion a year for our energy needs indefinitely--no nation in history has survived unchanged incurring deficits, whether government, trade, and energy, as the U.S. is now.
On an electoral note, I am of the mind that prolonged exposure of the Georgian crisis helps John McCain more than Barack Obama. McCain has been firmer, even more so than Bush, and has echoes of the Cold War in his rhetoric. If reminded, the Americans who lived through it will remember the Cold War, and despite increased youth turnout, older people most likely will make up the bulk of the vote.
Provocative? Maybe. Disagree with me on Russia, Energy, or Anything Else? Feel free to comment.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.russia.war/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.russia.out/index.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080813/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_road_to_tbilisi;_ylt=AjSED6q_KBRS3FPOjWpFwLJvaA8F
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.us/index.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080814/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia;_ylt=AlFdKa7AexyZX3mKVcKSU8xvaA8F
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/us.russia.diplomacy/index.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080814/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia;_ylt=AuP4rxAHFFjSEZOPqkRiIjhvaA8F
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/14/georgia.russia.war/index.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080814/ap_on_re_eu/poland_us_missile_defense;_ylt=Asf3TdtshgRtaYvc8SEccplvaA8F
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/episodes/06/then.now/
No comments:
Post a Comment