Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Super Tuesday Results a Boon for Senators McCain and Obama

Yesterday was Super Tuesday. Twenty-four states held presidential primaries or caucuses: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia. For the Democrats, 1,681 delegates were up for grabs in 16 primaries and 7 caucuses while the Republicans had 1,020 delegates at stake in 15 primaries and 6 caucuses.

Democrats
At the time of this posting, all states have been called with the exception of New Mexico's primary, where Hillary Clinton holds a thin 200 vote lead.

98%reporting
Clinton: 66,173--49%
Obama: 65,963--48%

If I had to make a call, I'd go with Hillary Clinton based on other trends that I will explain later. Additionally, given how tight the rest of Super Tuesday was, this can be crucial. In the rest of the Super Tuesday competition, Barack Obama took 13 states: all six caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota) plus seven primaries (Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Utah), and Clinton won in 8 states, all primaries (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennesse). The final count was almost deadlocked, but Obama came through and is projected to win 840-850 delegates to Clinton's 830-840 when all is settled. This puts Barack Obama ahead in earned delegates, 635-630, but Senator Clinton's superdelegate advantage puts her ahead overall 823-741. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Republicans
On the Republican side, John McCain moved into full frontrunner status with 9 state wins, Mitt Romney picked up 7, and Mike Huckabee won in 5 states. Senator took several large states, all primaries (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma). Mitt Romney performed strongly in the caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota) as well as in the primaries in Massachusetts and Utah. Mike Huckabee won several southern primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee) and a caucus (West Virginia). John McCain has vaulted into a huge lead over Romney, second, and Mike Huckabee, third. 680-270-176-16 (Ron Paul remained in fourth). 1,191 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Noticeable Trends
Analyzing Super Tuesday results, I've noticed concrete trends in both parties.

Democrats
Both candidates were powerful in the Northeast and split the region rather evenly with Clinton holding an edge; Senator Clinton took Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York while Obama won in Delaware and Connecticut. In the South, there was another close race with Senator Clinton holding a slim lead; Alabama and Georgia went for Obama, while Clinton took Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Clinton was strong in both Western states--winning both Arizona and California while Obama won in Alaska. Obama carried the Midwest states of Kansas, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and the nations traditional "bellwether," Missouri. Additionally, Obama won in all the caucus states, a testament to the loyalty of his supporters and the skill of his organization.

Republicans
A much more decisive race, John McCain was a powerhouse in the Northeast and West, winning Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. He also picked up victories in South (Oklahoma) and Midwest by taking Illinois and Missouri. Mike Huckabee's support rested firmly in the South as he won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Mitt Romney was able to win primaries in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and Utah, which has a high Mormon population. Utah also translated into Midwest success for Romney--he went on to take Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Romney's campaign organization was espoused by a near sweep of the caucuses--Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska; he has won in several other previous caucuses. Huckabee won the West Virginia caucus. Ron Paul was able to gather some delegates from caucuses, where organization and fervor matters.

The Bellwhether State
Throughout this post, I've referred to Missouri as the "bellwhether state." I am referring to Missouri's uncanny ability to predict elections. Missouri is a central state with liberals and conservatives, so it is a better indicator than Texas or Massachusetts. Beginning in 1904, Missouri has voted for the winner of the Presidential election every time except 1956 and has been within 2% of the national popular vote. Missouri has also been an economic indicator as well as political.

Delegate Apportioning
How a state distributes delegates in a primary or caucus is entirely up to the state; it can be based on county, district, by percentage, or the winner can be awarded all the delegates. It can also affect momentum depending on how it goes, as seen in Super Tuesday. For the Republicans, Huckabee took Alabama with 41%, and John McCain had 37%. Huckabee was awarded 20 delegates while McCain took home 16. In California, however, McCain got 42% to Mitt Romney's 34%, but McCain took 116 delegates to Romney's 3. In Missouri, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney took 33%, 32%, and 29% respectively, but McCain won all 58 delegates. All Super Tuesday states were proportional on the Democrat side.

West Virginia Controversy
West Virginia's Republican caucus had a little bit of machine style dealings on Tuesday. Romney came in expecting to win the winner-take-all state and led in the early balloting. Huckabee, McCain, and Romney moved on to the second ballot, but Ron Paul was disqualified. Romney stood comfortably in the high 40% range, but the other three candidate's delegates made a deal. Allegedly acting on orders from campaign coordinators, most of McCain's votes defected to Huckabee while all of Paul's vote caucused for Huckabee. As a result, Huckabee won a majority and all 18 delegates. Ron Paul received 3 delegates for their aid. Mitt Romney officials said that this was just the kind of dealing a Washington-insider like McCain would pull--even pulling the strings for a "tax and spend" governor.

My Take
Democrats
The Democrat race emerged with no clear cut nominee so the race will continue on. Obama gained some momentum by dominating the Midwest, a much larger region than the Northeast or West, where Clinton holds an edge. Additionally, there are several democratic caucuses in February alone, where Obama is clearly stronger. Midwestern states will be holding primaries as well. If I HAD to guess, I'd say Obama ekes it out in the end.

Republicans
John McCain has clearly taken control of this race, surging nearly 600 delegates, and is now over half way to the nomination. A conservative's "worst fear" came true as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee split the conservative vote, allowing McCain, who has held various left leaning positions and allies, to step in. Strong conservatives would be further incensed by the Huckabee-McCain-Paul deal, possibly portraying McCain as the big government dealer many fear him to be. However, as long as Romney and Huckabee are in the race, the effect will continue. Some have even said that Huckabee is staying in to help McCain by hurting Romney. Mitt Romney needs a breakthrough fast to reach southern conservatives and will need to translate Midwest success into a virtual sweep if that is to be his base. Ron Paul is attracting little attention and would probably need Romney and Huckabee to drop out and conservatives are given more insight into his views. If I HAD to guess, I'd say it looks like smooth sailing for McCain from here on in, and there is a real possibility it will be.

Additional Info.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/romney-camp-accuses-mccain-huckabee-of-shady-w.-va.-deal-2008-02-05.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080205
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

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