Senator Barack Obama won the Mississippi primary yesterday and has been projected the winner of March 4's Texas caucus. He took 61% of the Mississippi vote and is currently at 56% in the Texas caucus with 41% reporting. Texas holds both a primary, which Senator Hillary Clinton won, and a caucus depending on district or county. Senator John McCain won the Mississippi primary and has increased his delegate count to 1,325.
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,611 (207 superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,480 (237 superdelegates)
There are 931 delegates unawarded or uncommitted; however there are not enough pledged delegates left for either to realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time and can swing the election either way.
My Take
Although neither can clinch victory, Clinton is falling into a deeper hole and will most likely only be able to take the nomination by the superdelegate vote. Buth, this would embitter mainstream Democrats since having the party elite choose the candidate would, effectively, invalidate their vote since Obama has taken the pledged delegates from the states by a wide margin. I believe, in an effort to best preserve party unity, the superdelegates would affirm the party's popular vote, and Obama would win the nomination unless Clinton surges in the remaining primaries and begins to look like a better general election candidate. Incidentally, Clinton has lost a superdelegate through his resignation in the New York Spitzer scandal.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=MS
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
Showing posts with label 2008 Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 Elections. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Obama wins Wyoming Caucus; Dems debate fate of MI/FL Delegates
On Saturday, March 8, Barack Obama won the Democratic Wyoming caucus. He took 61% of the caucus to 38% for Hillary Clinton. The overall delegate total was little changed by Obama’s 7-5 victory. Mitt Romney won the Republican Wyoming caucus in January.
Overall Delegate Count (2,024 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,527 (1,328 pledged; 199 super)
Hillary Clinton: 1,428 (1,190 pledged; 238 super)
There are still 1,066 delegates to be awarded, however there are only around 750 pledged delegates left, and neither can realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time.
My Take
This makes little difference. The major contest is still Pennsylvania on April 22 and Mississippi this Tuesday, but it is so long until the Pennsylvania primaries that a victory by either in Mississippi would carry no significant momentum. On a side note, this victory attests to Obama’s caucus strength since in the individual counties he won with at least 60% of the vote while receiving around 45% support in those that he lost.
Michigan/Florida
More important for the Democratic race is the fate of the delegates from Michigan and Florida. For moving their primary up past February 5, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped the states of their delegates to deter other states from doing the same. Now, with the race so close, there is talk of what to do with the states’ delegates. Some say that the votes should stand, but neither campaigned in either state and Obama was not even on the Michigan ballot. Some have called for a revote, but that would cost $10 million in Michigan and $20 million in Florida. There have been also calls for a caucus or Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has stated that mail-in ballots might be utilized to keep costs low. The question of who picks up the cost is the major stumbling block, as Governor Granholm of Michigan has stated that no Michigan tax dollars will be used for the effort, and Dean asserted that the DNC will not foot the bill to make up for Michigan’s and Florida’s decision to break party rules.
My Take
Personally, I believe that a caucus should be held in each state so cost is down and it is more of a party decision since I believe that a party’s candidate should be chosen primarily by the party, and I originally stood in solidarity with DNC in its effort to maintain some control over the nominating process. But, I think in the end funds will be gathered by some means for a primary redo. But, the race is too close to ignore two big states. However, results from a contest with only Clinton on the ballot cannot stand, and mail-ins would be a horrible mess to distribute and collect to count—not to mention coordinating mailing for a certain day by millions that live in Florida and Michigan. What do you guys think should be done?
Final Note
Ron Paul has, in effect, ended his campaign by acknowledging he will not be the nominee or that there is hope for a brokered convention in which his beliefs and principles can make it onto the Republican platform. He has vowed to continue to fight for his beliefs and for change in America.
Edit, 3/11/08-
Ron Paul has affirmed in an interview that he has, in fact, not ended his campaign.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WY
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/09/michigan.florida/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/florida.michigan/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/ron.paul/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703061.html
Overall Delegate Count (2,024 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,527 (1,328 pledged; 199 super)
Hillary Clinton: 1,428 (1,190 pledged; 238 super)
There are still 1,066 delegates to be awarded, however there are only around 750 pledged delegates left, and neither can realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time.
My Take
This makes little difference. The major contest is still Pennsylvania on April 22 and Mississippi this Tuesday, but it is so long until the Pennsylvania primaries that a victory by either in Mississippi would carry no significant momentum. On a side note, this victory attests to Obama’s caucus strength since in the individual counties he won with at least 60% of the vote while receiving around 45% support in those that he lost.
Michigan/Florida
More important for the Democratic race is the fate of the delegates from Michigan and Florida. For moving their primary up past February 5, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped the states of their delegates to deter other states from doing the same. Now, with the race so close, there is talk of what to do with the states’ delegates. Some say that the votes should stand, but neither campaigned in either state and Obama was not even on the Michigan ballot. Some have called for a revote, but that would cost $10 million in Michigan and $20 million in Florida. There have been also calls for a caucus or Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has stated that mail-in ballots might be utilized to keep costs low. The question of who picks up the cost is the major stumbling block, as Governor Granholm of Michigan has stated that no Michigan tax dollars will be used for the effort, and Dean asserted that the DNC will not foot the bill to make up for Michigan’s and Florida’s decision to break party rules.
My Take
Personally, I believe that a caucus should be held in each state so cost is down and it is more of a party decision since I believe that a party’s candidate should be chosen primarily by the party, and I originally stood in solidarity with DNC in its effort to maintain some control over the nominating process. But, I think in the end funds will be gathered by some means for a primary redo. But, the race is too close to ignore two big states. However, results from a contest with only Clinton on the ballot cannot stand, and mail-ins would be a horrible mess to distribute and collect to count—not to mention coordinating mailing for a certain day by millions that live in Florida and Michigan. What do you guys think should be done?
Final Note
Ron Paul has, in effect, ended his campaign by acknowledging he will not be the nominee or that there is hope for a brokered convention in which his beliefs and principles can make it onto the Republican platform. He has vowed to continue to fight for his beliefs and for change in America.
Edit, 3/11/08-
Ron Paul has affirmed in an interview that he has, in fact, not ended his campaign.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WY
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/09/michigan.florida/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/florida.michigan/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/ron.paul/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703061.html
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
McCain wraps the nomination; Clinton and Obama march on
Yesterday, Tuesday, March 4th (dubbed "Crucial Tuesday" by some analysts) was a make or break day for both Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton. Tuesday's results are as follows:
Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Texas- 51% (majority)
Ohio- 54% (majority)
Vermont- 39%
Rhode Island- 58% (majority)
Barack Obama
Texas- 48%
Ohio- 44%
Vermont- 59% (majority)
Rhode Island- 41%
My analysis: Crucial Tuesday would have been the final test for Hillary Clinton; if she had lost Texas or Ohio her campaign would likely have been over and with that the Democratic primary race. Clinton's 10 point win in Ohio was a huge surge for her campaign, with that she snapped Obama's 11 primary winning streak. When the final results for Texas came in, Clinton had only a 3 point lead but she can still claim victory in the Lone Star State. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic primaries usually use a proportional delegate count; 51% of the Texas vote means (more or less) 51% of the delegate count. Obama had 102 delegate lead before Crucial Tuesday votes, and now he commands a (CNN projected) 96 delegate lead. As you can see, although Clinton came out victorious in three of the primaries, the delegate count shifted very little due to the proportional delegate distribution. Clinton's strategy at this point will be to win Pennsylvania and use her superdelegate support to win the nomination; Obama's chief strategy at this point is to basically derail Clinton's strategy by strong campaigning for the April 22 competition in Pennsylvania.
In Texas, Hillary Clinton won a majority of Latino voters, older voters, less educated (high school or less), voters on the issue of Health Care, and voters who decided in recent weeks. Clinton's win among Latino voters is evidence of enduring Latino support from the administration of Bill Clinton. Older voters typically support Hillary Clinton and that trend has held true in every primary and caucus so far. Less educated voters in Texas voting for Clinton can be seen as a reflection of Clinton's strong working class support. Clinton's win amongst Health Care voters is a reflection of her strong and well-outlined plan for health care, and her win among voters who recently decided who to vote for is a reflection both of her strong anti-Obama ads being run in the past few days and her strong performance in last week's debate.
Obama took a majority of higher educated voters, the black vote, the youth vote, and voters on the issue if Iraq. Obama's strong performance in higher educated voters is likely a reflection of Obama's strong support on college campuses: most college voters also fall into the youth bracket. Obama's support from blacks and the youth have been a staple of his campaign and those two demographics have consistently supported Obama. Voters on Iraq favor Obama for his anti-war stance on the war since its inception and also because Clinton voted to approve the war.
GOP
John McCain (majorities in every race)
Texas- 51%
Ohio- 60%
Vermont- 72%
Rhode Island- 65%
Mike Huckabee
Texas- 38%
Ohio- 31%
Vermont- 14%
Rhode Island- 22%
Ron Paul
Texas- 5%
Ohio- 5%
Vermont- 7%
Rhode Island- 7%
My analysis: John McCain locked the nomination on Crucial Tuesday, winning all four of the states by 13 point margins (or higher) and cruising past the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. McCain currently sits at 1, 289 projected delegates, a comfortable margin past the needed delegate count. What this means is that McCain will be able to spend the next two months focusing more on emphasizing his own strengths and downplaying his Democratic rivals while infighting in the Democratic party will detract from their own anti-McCain rhetoric. This extra time helps McCain to play up his strengths and prepare for the Democratic assault nearing the general election. Mike Huckabee, expecting greater success in the March 4 primaries, backed out of the race earlier today saying "[I] Wish it would have ended differently, but it is what it is." Strangely enough, Ron Paul still considers the race to be on, his website* has no indication of Paul dropping out of the race. In addition, today McCain received the official endorsement of President George W. Bush at the White House. Now that the primary season for the Republicans is over, I anticipate a full GOP backing of McCain. Although many right-wing pundits are still withholding support for McCain, I believe that soon they will give McCain their full endorsements and prepare along with him for the upcoming general election.
Sources used: (apologies for the inundation, but this is a complete list.)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#RI
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/huckabee/index.html
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/
Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Texas- 51% (majority)
Ohio- 54% (majority)
Vermont- 39%
Rhode Island- 58% (majority)
Barack Obama
Texas- 48%
Ohio- 44%
Vermont- 59% (majority)
Rhode Island- 41%
My analysis: Crucial Tuesday would have been the final test for Hillary Clinton; if she had lost Texas or Ohio her campaign would likely have been over and with that the Democratic primary race. Clinton's 10 point win in Ohio was a huge surge for her campaign, with that she snapped Obama's 11 primary winning streak. When the final results for Texas came in, Clinton had only a 3 point lead but she can still claim victory in the Lone Star State. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic primaries usually use a proportional delegate count; 51% of the Texas vote means (more or less) 51% of the delegate count. Obama had 102 delegate lead before Crucial Tuesday votes, and now he commands a (CNN projected) 96 delegate lead. As you can see, although Clinton came out victorious in three of the primaries, the delegate count shifted very little due to the proportional delegate distribution. Clinton's strategy at this point will be to win Pennsylvania and use her superdelegate support to win the nomination; Obama's chief strategy at this point is to basically derail Clinton's strategy by strong campaigning for the April 22 competition in Pennsylvania.
In Texas, Hillary Clinton won a majority of Latino voters, older voters, less educated (high school or less), voters on the issue of Health Care, and voters who decided in recent weeks. Clinton's win among Latino voters is evidence of enduring Latino support from the administration of Bill Clinton. Older voters typically support Hillary Clinton and that trend has held true in every primary and caucus so far. Less educated voters in Texas voting for Clinton can be seen as a reflection of Clinton's strong working class support. Clinton's win amongst Health Care voters is a reflection of her strong and well-outlined plan for health care, and her win among voters who recently decided who to vote for is a reflection both of her strong anti-Obama ads being run in the past few days and her strong performance in last week's debate.
Obama took a majority of higher educated voters, the black vote, the youth vote, and voters on the issue if Iraq. Obama's strong performance in higher educated voters is likely a reflection of Obama's strong support on college campuses: most college voters also fall into the youth bracket. Obama's support from blacks and the youth have been a staple of his campaign and those two demographics have consistently supported Obama. Voters on Iraq favor Obama for his anti-war stance on the war since its inception and also because Clinton voted to approve the war.
GOP
John McCain (majorities in every race)
Texas- 51%
Ohio- 60%
Vermont- 72%
Rhode Island- 65%
Mike Huckabee
Texas- 38%
Ohio- 31%
Vermont- 14%
Rhode Island- 22%
Ron Paul
Texas- 5%
Ohio- 5%
Vermont- 7%
Rhode Island- 7%
My analysis: John McCain locked the nomination on Crucial Tuesday, winning all four of the states by 13 point margins (or higher) and cruising past the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. McCain currently sits at 1, 289 projected delegates, a comfortable margin past the needed delegate count. What this means is that McCain will be able to spend the next two months focusing more on emphasizing his own strengths and downplaying his Democratic rivals while infighting in the Democratic party will detract from their own anti-McCain rhetoric. This extra time helps McCain to play up his strengths and prepare for the Democratic assault nearing the general election. Mike Huckabee, expecting greater success in the March 4 primaries, backed out of the race earlier today saying "[I] Wish it would have ended differently, but it is what it is." Strangely enough, Ron Paul still considers the race to be on, his website* has no indication of Paul dropping out of the race. In addition, today McCain received the official endorsement of President George W. Bush at the White House. Now that the primary season for the Republicans is over, I anticipate a full GOP backing of McCain. Although many right-wing pundits are still withholding support for McCain, I believe that soon they will give McCain their full endorsements and prepare along with him for the upcoming general election.
Sources used: (apologies for the inundation, but this is a complete list.)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#RI
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/huckabee/index.html
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/
Friday, February 29, 2008
Election Update - Obama soars past Clinton; McCain locks up Republican Nomination
First off, let me apologize for no significant updates on the election over the last few weeks due to the inundation of several members with other commitments. However, I hope that in the future that our response to news will be as quick and as prompt as possible.
Now then, over the past weeks, John McCain and Barack Obama used momentum from Super Tuesday to forward their campaign efforts. Obama swept through the Democratic contests in Louisiana, Nebraska (caucus), Washington, Maine (caucus), Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Wisconsin, and Hawaii (caucus)—taking the lead in delegates over rival Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton has also officially won the New Mexico primary. John McCain has also roared forward, coming within 200 delegates of a clinched nomination by taking Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Wisconsin. Rival Mike Huckabee won in the Kansas caucus, but, after nearly a month, has not caught up to Mitt Romney’s total before Romney suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain.
This Tuesday is what some are now calling “Super Tuesday 2,” when the delegate rich states of Ohio and Texas vote and can give John McCain a clinch, and, on the Dems’ side, make or break Hillary Clinton.
Democrats (2,025 to win)
Barack Obama: 1,369 (185 Superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,267 (236 Superdelegates)
There are still 1,387 delegates left.
My Take
Everything is going Obama’s way. Clinton’s big state strategy, so secure a month ago, is in jeopardy as Obama has taken the lead in Texas and is closing the gap in Ohio. Considering how rich in delegates those two states are, if Hillary doesn’t take enough to close the gap her campaign will come crashing down. She probably knows this, and her desperation can be seen by her sudden desire to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates as well as challenging Texas’s established “two step” caucus and primary set up, especially considering Obama’s strength in caucuses.
Republicans (1,191 to win)
John McCain: 1,033 (66 Unpledged RNC)
Mitt Romney(out): 255
Mike Huckabee: 247 (3 Unpledged RNC)
Ron Paul: 21
There are 824 delegates left.
My Take
The race is pretty much over. Huckabee will need nearly all the remaining delegates plus support from Romney’s delegates—not likely considering Romney’s endorsement of McCain. John McCain will the Republican nominee, and after March 4 it will be official or within a few delegates.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Now then, over the past weeks, John McCain and Barack Obama used momentum from Super Tuesday to forward their campaign efforts. Obama swept through the Democratic contests in Louisiana, Nebraska (caucus), Washington, Maine (caucus), Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Wisconsin, and Hawaii (caucus)—taking the lead in delegates over rival Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton has also officially won the New Mexico primary. John McCain has also roared forward, coming within 200 delegates of a clinched nomination by taking Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Wisconsin. Rival Mike Huckabee won in the Kansas caucus, but, after nearly a month, has not caught up to Mitt Romney’s total before Romney suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain.
This Tuesday is what some are now calling “Super Tuesday 2,” when the delegate rich states of Ohio and Texas vote and can give John McCain a clinch, and, on the Dems’ side, make or break Hillary Clinton.
Democrats (2,025 to win)
Barack Obama: 1,369 (185 Superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,267 (236 Superdelegates)
There are still 1,387 delegates left.
My Take
Everything is going Obama’s way. Clinton’s big state strategy, so secure a month ago, is in jeopardy as Obama has taken the lead in Texas and is closing the gap in Ohio. Considering how rich in delegates those two states are, if Hillary doesn’t take enough to close the gap her campaign will come crashing down. She probably knows this, and her desperation can be seen by her sudden desire to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates as well as challenging Texas’s established “two step” caucus and primary set up, especially considering Obama’s strength in caucuses.
Republicans (1,191 to win)
John McCain: 1,033 (66 Unpledged RNC)
Mitt Romney(out): 255
Mike Huckabee: 247 (3 Unpledged RNC)
Ron Paul: 21
There are 824 delegates left.
My Take
The race is pretty much over. Huckabee will need nearly all the remaining delegates plus support from Romney’s delegates—not likely considering Romney’s endorsement of McCain. John McCain will the Republican nominee, and after March 4 it will be official or within a few delegates.
Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Sunday, February 17, 2008
What's a Superdelegate?
According dictionary.com a superdelegate is “a party leader or elected public official chosen as an uncommitted delegate to a national political convention.” Only the Democrats have superdelegates, and they are chosen by the Democratic Party based on their status within the party. Superdelegates attend the Democratic National Convention and cast their own vote for a Presidential candidate, and do not necessarily have to follow the popular vote. Some of Michigan’s Superdelegates include Governor Granholm, U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow and U.S. Rep. John Dingell.
So what do you think? Should superdelegates hold this much power? Or should the popular vote in the Primary hold up at the National Convention?
Sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/17/2008.dems/index.html
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Election Update - Mitt Romney "Suspends" Campaign
Mitt Romney effectively ended his bid for the Presidency by suspending his campaign in order to provide the Republican party with unity heading into the general election. He made the announcement at the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference). He said that a drawn out GOP campaign would weaken and divide the party, making it easier for the Democratic candidate--Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton--to win the White House come November. He called for unity in the party against the threat of radical Islam and of surrender in the war on terror. Several notable conservative leaders, including Billy Graham, have already pledged support for McCain, while others, such as Sean Hannity, approach the Senator with caution. Mike Huckabee has stated that he has no plans of quitting any time soon.
Election Update
More accurate Super Tuesday delegate numbers are now available.
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Hillary Clinton: 1,033(193 Superdelegates)
Barack Obama: 937(106 Superdelegates)
Additionally, the New Mexico have been updated.
99% Reporting
Hillary Clinton: 49%(68,654)
Barack Obama: 48%(67,531)
My Take
Not much has changed. Hillary's lead has grown in New Mexico, so she will probably win, but it will only be a gain of one delegate, and the Democratic party is already looking towards future contests.
Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
John McCain: 714(17 Superdelegates)
Mitt Romney: 286(0 Superdelegates)
Mike Huckabee: 181(3 Superdelegates)
My Take
Romney's move opens up a lot of the conservative vote, especially in the caucuses where his performance was superb. The conservative vote might switch to Huckabee, making this a close election, but there is little room for error if Huckabee wants a majority. Huckabee's performance will improve, especially in the South, but it is my belief that John McCain will win the nomination.
Side Note
It certainly is ironic that what was once a contested GOP field has developed into dominance for Senator McCain while the Democrat field, previously epitomized by trends of single candidate dominace, is now so hotly contested. Many people predicted a divided GOP convention, but, if anything, a divided Democratic party is more likely. What will happen? Only time will tell, stay tuned.
Extra Information
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Election Update
More accurate Super Tuesday delegate numbers are now available.
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Hillary Clinton: 1,033(193 Superdelegates)
Barack Obama: 937(106 Superdelegates)
Additionally, the New Mexico have been updated.
99% Reporting
Hillary Clinton: 49%(68,654)
Barack Obama: 48%(67,531)
My Take
Not much has changed. Hillary's lead has grown in New Mexico, so she will probably win, but it will only be a gain of one delegate, and the Democratic party is already looking towards future contests.
Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
John McCain: 714(17 Superdelegates)
Mitt Romney: 286(0 Superdelegates)
Mike Huckabee: 181(3 Superdelegates)
My Take
Romney's move opens up a lot of the conservative vote, especially in the caucuses where his performance was superb. The conservative vote might switch to Huckabee, making this a close election, but there is little room for error if Huckabee wants a majority. Huckabee's performance will improve, especially in the South, but it is my belief that John McCain will win the nomination.
Side Note
It certainly is ironic that what was once a contested GOP field has developed into dominance for Senator McCain while the Democrat field, previously epitomized by trends of single candidate dominace, is now so hotly contested. Many people predicted a divided GOP convention, but, if anything, a divided Democratic party is more likely. What will happen? Only time will tell, stay tuned.
Extra Information
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/07/romney.campaign/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Super Tuesday Results a Boon for Senators McCain and Obama
Yesterday was Super Tuesday. Twenty-four states held presidential primaries or caucuses: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia. For the Democrats, 1,681 delegates were up for grabs in 16 primaries and 7 caucuses while the Republicans had 1,020 delegates at stake in 15 primaries and 6 caucuses.
Democrats
At the time of this posting, all states have been called with the exception of New Mexico's primary, where Hillary Clinton holds a thin 200 vote lead.
98%reporting
Clinton: 66,173--49%
Obama: 65,963--48%
If I had to make a call, I'd go with Hillary Clinton based on other trends that I will explain later. Additionally, given how tight the rest of Super Tuesday was, this can be crucial. In the rest of the Super Tuesday competition, Barack Obama took 13 states: all six caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota) plus seven primaries (Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Utah), and Clinton won in 8 states, all primaries (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennesse). The final count was almost deadlocked, but Obama came through and is projected to win 840-850 delegates to Clinton's 830-840 when all is settled. This puts Barack Obama ahead in earned delegates, 635-630, but Senator Clinton's superdelegate advantage puts her ahead overall 823-741. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Republicans
On the Republican side, John McCain moved into full frontrunner status with 9 state wins, Mitt Romney picked up 7, and Mike Huckabee won in 5 states. Senator took several large states, all primaries (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma). Mitt Romney performed strongly in the caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota) as well as in the primaries in Massachusetts and Utah. Mike Huckabee won several southern primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee) and a caucus (West Virginia). John McCain has vaulted into a huge lead over Romney, second, and Mike Huckabee, third. 680-270-176-16 (Ron Paul remained in fourth). 1,191 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Noticeable Trends
Analyzing Super Tuesday results, I've noticed concrete trends in both parties.
Democrats
Both candidates were powerful in the Northeast and split the region rather evenly with Clinton holding an edge; Senator Clinton took Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York while Obama won in Delaware and Connecticut. In the South, there was another close race with Senator Clinton holding a slim lead; Alabama and Georgia went for Obama, while Clinton took Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Clinton was strong in both Western states--winning both Arizona and California while Obama won in Alaska. Obama carried the Midwest states of Kansas, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and the nations traditional "bellwether," Missouri. Additionally, Obama won in all the caucus states, a testament to the loyalty of his supporters and the skill of his organization.
Republicans
A much more decisive race, John McCain was a powerhouse in the Northeast and West, winning Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. He also picked up victories in South (Oklahoma) and Midwest by taking Illinois and Missouri. Mike Huckabee's support rested firmly in the South as he won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Mitt Romney was able to win primaries in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and Utah, which has a high Mormon population. Utah also translated into Midwest success for Romney--he went on to take Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Romney's campaign organization was espoused by a near sweep of the caucuses--Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska; he has won in several other previous caucuses. Huckabee won the West Virginia caucus. Ron Paul was able to gather some delegates from caucuses, where organization and fervor matters.
The Bellwhether State
Throughout this post, I've referred to Missouri as the "bellwhether state." I am referring to Missouri's uncanny ability to predict elections. Missouri is a central state with liberals and conservatives, so it is a better indicator than Texas or Massachusetts. Beginning in 1904, Missouri has voted for the winner of the Presidential election every time except 1956 and has been within 2% of the national popular vote. Missouri has also been an economic indicator as well as political.
Delegate Apportioning
How a state distributes delegates in a primary or caucus is entirely up to the state; it can be based on county, district, by percentage, or the winner can be awarded all the delegates. It can also affect momentum depending on how it goes, as seen in Super Tuesday. For the Republicans, Huckabee took Alabama with 41%, and John McCain had 37%. Huckabee was awarded 20 delegates while McCain took home 16. In California, however, McCain got 42% to Mitt Romney's 34%, but McCain took 116 delegates to Romney's 3. In Missouri, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney took 33%, 32%, and 29% respectively, but McCain won all 58 delegates. All Super Tuesday states were proportional on the Democrat side.
West Virginia Controversy
West Virginia's Republican caucus had a little bit of machine style dealings on Tuesday. Romney came in expecting to win the winner-take-all state and led in the early balloting. Huckabee, McCain, and Romney moved on to the second ballot, but Ron Paul was disqualified. Romney stood comfortably in the high 40% range, but the other three candidate's delegates made a deal. Allegedly acting on orders from campaign coordinators, most of McCain's votes defected to Huckabee while all of Paul's vote caucused for Huckabee. As a result, Huckabee won a majority and all 18 delegates. Ron Paul received 3 delegates for their aid. Mitt Romney officials said that this was just the kind of dealing a Washington-insider like McCain would pull--even pulling the strings for a "tax and spend" governor.
My Take
Democrats
The Democrat race emerged with no clear cut nominee so the race will continue on. Obama gained some momentum by dominating the Midwest, a much larger region than the Northeast or West, where Clinton holds an edge. Additionally, there are several democratic caucuses in February alone, where Obama is clearly stronger. Midwestern states will be holding primaries as well. If I HAD to guess, I'd say Obama ekes it out in the end.
Republicans
John McCain has clearly taken control of this race, surging nearly 600 delegates, and is now over half way to the nomination. A conservative's "worst fear" came true as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee split the conservative vote, allowing McCain, who has held various left leaning positions and allies, to step in. Strong conservatives would be further incensed by the Huckabee-McCain-Paul deal, possibly portraying McCain as the big government dealer many fear him to be. However, as long as Romney and Huckabee are in the race, the effect will continue. Some have even said that Huckabee is staying in to help McCain by hurting Romney. Mitt Romney needs a breakthrough fast to reach southern conservatives and will need to translate Midwest success into a virtual sweep if that is to be his base. Ron Paul is attracting little attention and would probably need Romney and Huckabee to drop out and conservatives are given more insight into his views. If I HAD to guess, I'd say it looks like smooth sailing for McCain from here on in, and there is a real possibility it will be.
Additional Info.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/romney-camp-accuses-mccain-huckabee-of-shady-w.-va.-deal-2008-02-05.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080205
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Democrats
At the time of this posting, all states have been called with the exception of New Mexico's primary, where Hillary Clinton holds a thin 200 vote lead.
98%reporting
Clinton: 66,173--49%
Obama: 65,963--48%
If I had to make a call, I'd go with Hillary Clinton based on other trends that I will explain later. Additionally, given how tight the rest of Super Tuesday was, this can be crucial. In the rest of the Super Tuesday competition, Barack Obama took 13 states: all six caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, and North Dakota) plus seven primaries (Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, and Utah), and Clinton won in 8 states, all primaries (Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennesse). The final count was almost deadlocked, but Obama came through and is projected to win 840-850 delegates to Clinton's 830-840 when all is settled. This puts Barack Obama ahead in earned delegates, 635-630, but Senator Clinton's superdelegate advantage puts her ahead overall 823-741. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Republicans
On the Republican side, John McCain moved into full frontrunner status with 9 state wins, Mitt Romney picked up 7, and Mike Huckabee won in 5 states. Senator took several large states, all primaries (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma). Mitt Romney performed strongly in the caucuses (Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota) as well as in the primaries in Massachusetts and Utah. Mike Huckabee won several southern primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee) and a caucus (West Virginia). John McCain has vaulted into a huge lead over Romney, second, and Mike Huckabee, third. 680-270-176-16 (Ron Paul remained in fourth). 1,191 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Noticeable Trends
Analyzing Super Tuesday results, I've noticed concrete trends in both parties.
Democrats
Both candidates were powerful in the Northeast and split the region rather evenly with Clinton holding an edge; Senator Clinton took Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York while Obama won in Delaware and Connecticut. In the South, there was another close race with Senator Clinton holding a slim lead; Alabama and Georgia went for Obama, while Clinton took Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Clinton was strong in both Western states--winning both Arizona and California while Obama won in Alaska. Obama carried the Midwest states of Kansas, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and the nations traditional "bellwether," Missouri. Additionally, Obama won in all the caucus states, a testament to the loyalty of his supporters and the skill of his organization.
Republicans
A much more decisive race, John McCain was a powerhouse in the Northeast and West, winning Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. He also picked up victories in South (Oklahoma) and Midwest by taking Illinois and Missouri. Mike Huckabee's support rested firmly in the South as he won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Mitt Romney was able to win primaries in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and Utah, which has a high Mormon population. Utah also translated into Midwest success for Romney--he went on to take Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Romney's campaign organization was espoused by a near sweep of the caucuses--Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Alaska; he has won in several other previous caucuses. Huckabee won the West Virginia caucus. Ron Paul was able to gather some delegates from caucuses, where organization and fervor matters.
The Bellwhether State
Throughout this post, I've referred to Missouri as the "bellwhether state." I am referring to Missouri's uncanny ability to predict elections. Missouri is a central state with liberals and conservatives, so it is a better indicator than Texas or Massachusetts. Beginning in 1904, Missouri has voted for the winner of the Presidential election every time except 1956 and has been within 2% of the national popular vote. Missouri has also been an economic indicator as well as political.
Delegate Apportioning
How a state distributes delegates in a primary or caucus is entirely up to the state; it can be based on county, district, by percentage, or the winner can be awarded all the delegates. It can also affect momentum depending on how it goes, as seen in Super Tuesday. For the Republicans, Huckabee took Alabama with 41%, and John McCain had 37%. Huckabee was awarded 20 delegates while McCain took home 16. In California, however, McCain got 42% to Mitt Romney's 34%, but McCain took 116 delegates to Romney's 3. In Missouri, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney took 33%, 32%, and 29% respectively, but McCain won all 58 delegates. All Super Tuesday states were proportional on the Democrat side.
West Virginia Controversy
West Virginia's Republican caucus had a little bit of machine style dealings on Tuesday. Romney came in expecting to win the winner-take-all state and led in the early balloting. Huckabee, McCain, and Romney moved on to the second ballot, but Ron Paul was disqualified. Romney stood comfortably in the high 40% range, but the other three candidate's delegates made a deal. Allegedly acting on orders from campaign coordinators, most of McCain's votes defected to Huckabee while all of Paul's vote caucused for Huckabee. As a result, Huckabee won a majority and all 18 delegates. Ron Paul received 3 delegates for their aid. Mitt Romney officials said that this was just the kind of dealing a Washington-insider like McCain would pull--even pulling the strings for a "tax and spend" governor.
My Take
Democrats
The Democrat race emerged with no clear cut nominee so the race will continue on. Obama gained some momentum by dominating the Midwest, a much larger region than the Northeast or West, where Clinton holds an edge. Additionally, there are several democratic caucuses in February alone, where Obama is clearly stronger. Midwestern states will be holding primaries as well. If I HAD to guess, I'd say Obama ekes it out in the end.
Republicans
John McCain has clearly taken control of this race, surging nearly 600 delegates, and is now over half way to the nomination. A conservative's "worst fear" came true as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee split the conservative vote, allowing McCain, who has held various left leaning positions and allies, to step in. Strong conservatives would be further incensed by the Huckabee-McCain-Paul deal, possibly portraying McCain as the big government dealer many fear him to be. However, as long as Romney and Huckabee are in the race, the effect will continue. Some have even said that Huckabee is staying in to help McCain by hurting Romney. Mitt Romney needs a breakthrough fast to reach southern conservatives and will need to translate Midwest success into a virtual sweep if that is to be his base. Ron Paul is attracting little attention and would probably need Romney and Huckabee to drop out and conservatives are given more insight into his views. If I HAD to guess, I'd say it looks like smooth sailing for McCain from here on in, and there is a real possibility it will be.
Additional Info.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/romney-camp-accuses-mccain-huckabee-of-shady-w.-va.-deal-2008-02-05.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/#20080205
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8358.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Election Update - Giuliani and Edwards Drop Out
In the last ten days there have been 4 contests in 3 states. The Democrats have held their primaries in South Carolina and Florida, and the Republicans have held their Florida primary as well as a caucus in Maine. Barack Obama convincingly won the South Carolina primary with 55% of the vote--doubling up on Hillary Clinton's 27%. Senator Clinton won Florida, but, like Michigan, the Democratic party stripped Florida of its delegates for moving up their primary. For the Republicans, John McCain won Florida with 36% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 31%. Rudy Giuliani won 15% of the vote. In Maine, Mitt Romney won with relative ease with 52% of the vote, and is projected to take all 18 delegates. John McCain came in second in Maine with 21%, and Ron Paul closely followed with 19%. Please note that this is with 68% of the caucus reporting.
After the Florida primaries, both John Edwards on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side dropped out. The Edwards campaign never gained traction and couldn't rebound from a disappointing second place finish in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani bet his entire campaign on Florida, but was swallowed up by the momentum Governor Romney and Senator McCain brought in by their earlier victories. Rudy Giuliani has endorsed John McCain.
Super Tuesday is this Tuesday, February 5, and 24 states will hold a caucus or primary.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the leader in total delegates to date:
Hillary Clinton: 232
Barack Obama: 158
John Edwards(OUT): 26
On the Republican side, John McCain has moved into the lead for total delegates with Mitt Romney coming in a close second.
John McCain: 97
Mitt Romney: 92
Mike Huckabee: 29
Ron Paul: 6
My Take
Democrats
The race has come down to two candidates at last, and Super Tuesday will the pivotal fight. Hillary Clinton leads in several delegate rich states, but Barack Obama has made gains both in those states and nationally. Whether it will be enough, we shall see. On an interesting note, Senator Clinton's lead is due mostly to superdelegates, and Barack Obama has the lead in delegates won in caucuses and primaries.
Republicans
Everything seems to be going John McCain's way. He won Florida and is leading in many Super Tuesday states according to Detroit Free Press article. Although he has taken Maine, Mitt Romney will likely gain little momentum since the coverage has been sparse like it was in Wyoming. Mike Huckabee can hurt Mitt Romney in the South since both are courting the conservative wing of the GOP while John McCain has the moderates solidly in his camp. Ron Paul is a very long shot, and, barring a Super Tuesday miracle, should be just about done come Wednesday. He is polling well in Alaska, and if he can win there and pull off a miracle in other states, something may begin.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080203/NEWS15/802030591/1215
After the Florida primaries, both John Edwards on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side dropped out. The Edwards campaign never gained traction and couldn't rebound from a disappointing second place finish in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani bet his entire campaign on Florida, but was swallowed up by the momentum Governor Romney and Senator McCain brought in by their earlier victories. Rudy Giuliani has endorsed John McCain.
Super Tuesday is this Tuesday, February 5, and 24 states will hold a caucus or primary.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the leader in total delegates to date:
Hillary Clinton: 232
Barack Obama: 158
John Edwards(OUT): 26
On the Republican side, John McCain has moved into the lead for total delegates with Mitt Romney coming in a close second.
John McCain: 97
Mitt Romney: 92
Mike Huckabee: 29
Ron Paul: 6
My Take
Democrats
The race has come down to two candidates at last, and Super Tuesday will the pivotal fight. Hillary Clinton leads in several delegate rich states, but Barack Obama has made gains both in those states and nationally. Whether it will be enough, we shall see. On an interesting note, Senator Clinton's lead is due mostly to superdelegates, and Barack Obama has the lead in delegates won in caucuses and primaries.
Republicans
Everything seems to be going John McCain's way. He won Florida and is leading in many Super Tuesday states according to Detroit Free Press article. Although he has taken Maine, Mitt Romney will likely gain little momentum since the coverage has been sparse like it was in Wyoming. Mike Huckabee can hurt Mitt Romney in the South since both are courting the conservative wing of the GOP while John McCain has the moderates solidly in his camp. Ron Paul is a very long shot, and, barring a Super Tuesday miracle, should be just about done come Wednesday. He is polling well in Alaska, and if he can win there and pull off a miracle in other states, something may begin.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080203/NEWS15/802030591/1215
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fred Thompson Drops Out of GOP Race
Republican candidate Fred Thompson dropped out today after finishing third in South Carolina last Saturday where he was hoping to invigorate his campaign. Thompson finished third in Iowa, fifth in Michigan and Nevada, sixth in New Hampshire and a distant second to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Wyoming. After much hype, Thompson's campaign couldn't gain traction when he entered the race. He has been described as lackluster with no energy despite, albeit late, a good showing in recent debates. Five candidates remain in the Republican race: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Rudy Giuliani.
My Take
Odds are his votes will spread between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney who have been running campaigns on traditional conservative views, perhaps leaning towards Huckabee given Romney's shift on the issues. This can potentially hurt Rudy Giuliani further in Florida.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/22/thompson.out/index.html
My Take
Odds are his votes will spread between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney who have been running campaigns on traditional conservative views, perhaps leaning towards Huckabee given Romney's shift on the issues. This can potentially hurt Rudy Giuliani further in Florida.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/22/thompson.out/index.html
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Know Your Candidate - Mitt Romney
Candidate #2: Willard "Mitt" Romney
Background: Mitt Romney was born on March 12, 1947, in Detroit, Michigan. His father George was a successful businessman and chairman of American Motors Corporation. He went on to be governor of Michigan from 1963-1969, and ran for President in 1968. His mother was a Michigan candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1970. Romney is a member of the Church of Latter-day Saints, or, Mormonism. He was a Mormon missionary in France for two and a half years after leaving Stanford University after two quarters. He married Ann Romney after returning from his missionary work in 1969 and both attended Brigham Young University; Mitt later attended Harvard Business and Law School, completing his formal education. He was vice president of the Boston firm Bain & Company, Inc. for several years before co-founding Bain Capital, a private equity investment firm. His investments yielded 113% annually, and he invested in or bought out many companies such as Staples, Brookstone, Domino's, Sealy Corporation and Sports Authority. He later returned to Bain & Company where as CEO he completely turned around the company. In 1999, he took over the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympic Games Organizing Committee and turned that around as well, saving the Olympics from bankruptcy by turning a near $400 million dollar deficit into a $100 million surplus. After the Olympics he ran for governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and held the position from 2003 to 2007, when he decided to run for President.
Education: He attended Stanford University before his missionary work in France. Afterwards, at Brigham Young University, he earned his B.A. and was valedictorian, graduating summa cum laude. He graduated cum laude with a joint Juris Doctor/Master of Business Administration program coordinated between Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School.
Political History: His first foray into politics was in 1994 where he ran against incumbent Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts for a U.S. Senate seat. It was Kennedy’s greatest challenge as senator further hampered by an anti-Democratic party trend in 1994, but Romney was soundly defeated in the election by a margin of 58%-41%. Fresh from his work at the 2002 Winter Olympics, Romney was “drafted” by the Massachusetts Republican party to replace unpopular and scandal-ridden Jane Swift. Helped by the efficiency he instilled in the Olympic turnaround, Romney won the election by a 50%-45% margin. He chose not to run for reelection in 2006 and entered the 2008 Presidential race in early 2007.
The Issues
Foreign Policy
Iraq
Romney believes in staying in Iraq as long as success is a possibility but thinks that President Bush gave inane reasons to invade. He believes that if Iraq is left unstable it would cause chaos within the country and neighboring countries: the Kurds would destabilize Turkey, Iran would swallow the Shia region, and the Sunni region would become an al-Qaeda base. He supported the 2007 troop surge and believes that those troops should be kept in the region as support based from Kuwait. He has said that if a withdrawal is planned it should be kept secret between the U.S. and Iraqi governments. He does not believe policy should change in step with polls.
Iran
Romney believes that in response to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s comments on Israel the Secretary-General should present an indictment under the Genocide Convention for threats against Israel, and that failure to act should lead the United States to reconsider its level of support and funding for the United Nations. He has stated that he wants stronger sanctions on Iran.
General Middle-East
Romney has said that he wants to make alliances with nations to help with modernization and decrease the risk that they might fall into a “jihadist state.” He has not ruled out the possibility of attacking al-Qaeda in Pakistan, and believes that sensitive plans such as these must be kept secret. He believes in forming “Special Partnership Forces” to fight terrorism. These would be made up of SEALs and Delta Force agents, and they would give assistance or humanitarian aid. SPFs would be in countries with the permission of the host government to lead operations against terrorists.
Other
He wants to double the size of the Guantanomo Bay prison and wishes to keep interrogation techniques secret for security purposes but wishes to use only “enhanced interrogation,” not torture. Romney has expressed desires to free Cuba and eliminate the threat of Hugo Chavez and the like in order to foster a Latin America inclined to align itself with the U.S. through economic ties. He believes in strengthening alliances with strained nations like France and Germany so that a united front can be maintained against global jihad.
Immigration
Mitt Romney wishes to increase legal immigration while stifling illegal immigration. He believes that illegal aliens should go home eventually, but has supported Z visa plans to allow them to stay as well. He has stated that he is against amnesty but advocates a pathway to citizenship through application and paying back taxes. He believes in issuing a tamper proof national ID card for non-citizens. He has been often accused of allowing “sanctuary cities” to go unpunished while he has criticized rival Rudy Giuliani about turning New York City into one. He has also accused other candidates of amnesty or supporting benefits like tuition for illegal aliens. In his last month of office Romney signed an executive order that allowed police to arrest people based on federal immigration violations.
Economy
Budget
Romney has said he wants to fundamentally change Washington by cutting spending and eliminating "pork". He often has cited his ability to balance the Massachusetts deficit of $1.2 billion and raise a surplus of $700 million. He wants to institute a line-item veto to help cut pork as well as giving the President the discretion to cut funding passed by Congress by 20%. He supports the idea of an amendment to the Constitution requiring a balanced budget.
Taxes/Minimum Wage
He wants lower taxes for everyone, lower corporate taxes, no taxes on middle class savings, making the Bush tax cuts permanent, and a law requiring a 60% vote to raise taxes. He wants an end to taxes on interests, dividends & capital gains. During his governorship, he did raise fees but only to cover their cost. He has signed an anti-tax pledge for no new taxes or increases in existing taxes. He supports moderate increases in the minimum wage instead of large hikes every once in a while.
Energy/Technology
Romney has advocated plans to pursue nuclear power and liquefied coal as energy sources. He believes alternative energy and drilling in ANWR in Alaska is the key to end dependence on foreign oil. He also believes in a general investment in research in cleaner energy sources. He also wants part of energy to be energy security to help U.S. energy interests.
Free Trade
He believes in free trade but thinks that deals must be renegotiated—especially with China. Romney thinks measures should be taken to improve the U.S.’s position or Asian economies will overtake the U.S.
Social Issues
Healthcare
Romney plans to encourage states to decrease insurance regulation to lower costs as well as giving states full freedom on how to spend Medicaid dollars. He would also make all expenses tax deductible and increase competition to lower cost and raise quality.
Environment
As governor he chose to promote public health over dirty power plants that could harm people. He believes in producing cleaner alternative energy to help the environment and get the U.S. off of foreign oil.
Education
He believes in making students competitive globally by focusing on math and science. At one point he desired to abolish the Education Department but now says he would expand and enhance the No Child Left Behind Act. He believes in a voucher system and support for home-schoolers. He believes in merit pay for teachers. He supports replacing struggling schools with charter schools.
Crime
He believes in the death penalty and three strikes laws. He also has advocated a one strike plan in which criminals would be tracked with a GPS after one felony. He wishes to reform sentencing and appeal lenient sentences.
Other Issues
Gun Control
He supports the NRA and the second amendment but supports the assault weapons ban to protect police from heavy weaponry.
Drugs
He does not support any legalization of marijuana and wishes to take the fight to the Central American “narco-terrorists.”
Abortion
He supported abortion rights as governor, but now is in opposition to the Roe v. Wade ruling.
Homosexuality
He has allowed gay partner benefits but has recently taken a stance opposing gay marriage and civil union and would welcome a ban.
Family
He believes that family is a pillar of America along with economy and military, and he has said that each child deserves a father and mother. He believes in teaching family values in schools but not necessarily religion.
Strengths: He is viewed as the ideal fiscal candidate to deal with the budget and the economy due to his business background. He has turned around a state, the Olympics, and several businesses. He cites bipartisanship by his work as a Republican governor of a liberal state like Massachusetts. He is strong on defense as well as building alliances for defense.
Weaknesses: He has changed his positions on several issues over the years although he says this is due to experience, but this weakness undermined John Kerry in 2004. Some dislike him because of his Mormon beliefs.
Political Claim to Fame
He spearheaded the sometimes called "miraculous" turnaround of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City and then turned around the fiscal crisis as governor of Massachusetts. He is also from a family of Washington and state politicians. People began to speculate his presidential run in 2004.
2008 Election
He started running in early 2007 and was one of the original two front runners—him and Rudy Giuliani. His strategy has focused heavily on early states and he quickly opened up leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. His leads began to slip as the year wore on. He finished second in both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. He won the Wyoming caucus, the Michigan primary, and Nevada caucus before finishing fourth in South Carolina. He is currently in first with 72 delegates as of January 20, 2008.
Nevada Caucuses; South Carolina Republican Primary
Both the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina GOP Primary were held yesterday (the Democratic primary will be held next week). In Nevada, Hillary Clinton edged out Barack Obama, and Mitt Romney blew out the GOP field with over 50% of the voted. The Internet sensation, Ron Paul, had a surprise second place finish. In South Carolina, John McCain won a tight race with Mike Huckabee despite counties in McCain leaning parts of South Carolina running out of ballots early on.
The scores are percentage of vote--number of delegates awarded.
Nevada (D)
Clinton: 51%--12
Obama: 45%--13
Edwards: 4%--0
Uncommitted: 0%
Kucinich: 0%
Nevada (R)
Romney: 51%--18
Paul: 14%--4
McCain: 13%--4
Huckabee: 8%--2
Thompson: 8%--2
Giuliani: 4%--1
Hunter: 2%--0
South Carolina (R)
McCain: 33%--19
Huckabee: 30%--5
Thompson: 16%--0
Romney: 15%--0
Paul: 4%--0
Giuliani: 2%--0
Hunter: 0%--0
By a caucus rule, Barack Obama actually won more delegates than Hillary Clinton in the Nevada caucus despite the fact that she got over 50% of the vote. Following these two poor performances, Duncan Hunter officially dropped out of the Republican race.
Here is how the candidates stand in terms of overall delegates:
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Clinton: 210
Obama: 123
Edwards: 52
Kucinich: 1
Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
Romney: 72
McCain: 38
Huckabee: 29
Thompson: 8
Paul: 6
Giuliani: 2
Hunter: 1
My Take
Dems
The next contest is next Saturday, the 26th, in South Carolina. South Carolina is beginning to look more and more like a do or die state for Obama as Clinton took her third state in a row and maintains leads in national polls while Obama holds a relatively slim 44-38 point lead in South Carolina in pre-Nevada polls. John Edwards, a native son who won there in 2004, is on his last gasps as Obama and Clinton routinely take 40+% each in polls and primaries after Iowa. If he maintains some level of support through at least Super Tuesday, he can gain leverage by throwing his delegates in one direction or another if neither Clinton nor Obama gain the needed majority, but his presidential hopes are all but over.
South Carolina will be critical.
GOP
The next GOP contest is on January 29 in Florida. Some degree of clarity is emerging from the Republican race as Mitt Romney maintains a large delegate count in comparison to his rivals. He has finished at least third in five states, and first in two. John McCain remains popular nationally and has moved into second in the delegate count. If he can rally Independent support he can start to make a charge in Florida, Maine, and Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee's star is beginning to fade as he has come up short in all events after Iowa. He will need to do well in Florida and other southern states to maintain momentum. Ron Paul has finished nowhere near where he was hyped by his fans and it is becoming more and more clear that he will not be able to win. Fred Thompson has been floundering since his hype died down, and a third place finish in South Carolina can either be his last twitch or perhaps the start of some traction. He will need to appeal to conservatives in a southern state like Florida to stage a comeback and perform well there, in Maine, and on Super Tuesday. He proved in the last debate that he can be strong and dynamic, but it might almost be too late to change the tide. Rudy Giuliani is in a delicate situation. Mitt Romney has eaten up delegate and McCain is soaring in national polls and in Florida. He finished with 2% in South Carolina and will need victory or a very close second in Florida to feasibly continue the campaign in my view. He said he was going to bank on Florida--now, it might be his last hope.
The candidates have a little over a week to work in Florida. After that, the picture should be clearer yet of how the GOP will play out.
Florida/South Carolina Info.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
Other Sites:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/hunter-exits-presidential-race/
The scores are percentage of vote--number of delegates awarded.
Nevada (D)
Clinton: 51%--12
Obama: 45%--13
Edwards: 4%--0
Uncommitted: 0%
Kucinich: 0%
Nevada (R)
Romney: 51%--18
Paul: 14%--4
McCain: 13%--4
Huckabee: 8%--2
Thompson: 8%--2
Giuliani: 4%--1
Hunter: 2%--0
South Carolina (R)
McCain: 33%--19
Huckabee: 30%--5
Thompson: 16%--0
Romney: 15%--0
Paul: 4%--0
Giuliani: 2%--0
Hunter: 0%--0
By a caucus rule, Barack Obama actually won more delegates than Hillary Clinton in the Nevada caucus despite the fact that she got over 50% of the vote. Following these two poor performances, Duncan Hunter officially dropped out of the Republican race.
Here is how the candidates stand in terms of overall delegates:
Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Clinton: 210
Obama: 123
Edwards: 52
Kucinich: 1
Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
Romney: 72
McCain: 38
Huckabee: 29
Thompson: 8
Paul: 6
Giuliani: 2
Hunter: 1
My Take
Dems
The next contest is next Saturday, the 26th, in South Carolina. South Carolina is beginning to look more and more like a do or die state for Obama as Clinton took her third state in a row and maintains leads in national polls while Obama holds a relatively slim 44-38 point lead in South Carolina in pre-Nevada polls. John Edwards, a native son who won there in 2004, is on his last gasps as Obama and Clinton routinely take 40+% each in polls and primaries after Iowa. If he maintains some level of support through at least Super Tuesday, he can gain leverage by throwing his delegates in one direction or another if neither Clinton nor Obama gain the needed majority, but his presidential hopes are all but over.
South Carolina will be critical.
GOP
The next GOP contest is on January 29 in Florida. Some degree of clarity is emerging from the Republican race as Mitt Romney maintains a large delegate count in comparison to his rivals. He has finished at least third in five states, and first in two. John McCain remains popular nationally and has moved into second in the delegate count. If he can rally Independent support he can start to make a charge in Florida, Maine, and Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee's star is beginning to fade as he has come up short in all events after Iowa. He will need to do well in Florida and other southern states to maintain momentum. Ron Paul has finished nowhere near where he was hyped by his fans and it is becoming more and more clear that he will not be able to win. Fred Thompson has been floundering since his hype died down, and a third place finish in South Carolina can either be his last twitch or perhaps the start of some traction. He will need to appeal to conservatives in a southern state like Florida to stage a comeback and perform well there, in Maine, and on Super Tuesday. He proved in the last debate that he can be strong and dynamic, but it might almost be too late to change the tide. Rudy Giuliani is in a delicate situation. Mitt Romney has eaten up delegate and McCain is soaring in national polls and in Florida. He finished with 2% in South Carolina and will need victory or a very close second in Florida to feasibly continue the campaign in my view. He said he was going to bank on Florida--now, it might be his last hope.
The candidates have a little over a week to work in Florida. After that, the picture should be clearer yet of how the GOP will play out.
Florida/South Carolina Info.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
Other Sites:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/hunter-exits-presidential-race/
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Democratic Field Narrows; Bill Richardson drops out
The Associated Press is reporting that Governor Bill Richardson has decided to drop out of the Democratic race; more information to come as soon as it becomes available.
---
Today, the Associated Press (and the New York Times) reported that Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico, is going to announce the termination of his candidacy for the Democratic Presidential nomination. After posting single digit numbers in both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary, Richardson met with his advisers and will be announcing the end of his candidacy on Thursday. While Richardson's dropping out might seem inconsequential, his endorsement might prove very important in the upcoming South Carolina primary for the Democratic Party. It is important to note that Richardson's 5% of the vote would have changed the landscape of the New Hampshire primary; assuming he endorses Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, Richardson's exit from the race might make or break the candidacy of either of those candidates. Needless to say, Richardson dropping out of the campaign will likely cause some serious waves in the race for the Democratic nomination. As soon as Richardson's endorsement becomes public, this post will be updated with analysis on what his endorsement means for the race.
Sources used:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/us/politics/10cnd-richardson.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH
---
Today, the Associated Press (and the New York Times) reported that Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico, is going to announce the termination of his candidacy for the Democratic Presidential nomination. After posting single digit numbers in both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary, Richardson met with his advisers and will be announcing the end of his candidacy on Thursday. While Richardson's dropping out might seem inconsequential, his endorsement might prove very important in the upcoming South Carolina primary for the Democratic Party. It is important to note that Richardson's 5% of the vote would have changed the landscape of the New Hampshire primary; assuming he endorses Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, Richardson's exit from the race might make or break the candidacy of either of those candidates. Needless to say, Richardson dropping out of the campaign will likely cause some serious waves in the race for the Democratic nomination. As soon as Richardson's endorsement becomes public, this post will be updated with analysis on what his endorsement means for the race.
Sources used:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/us/politics/10cnd-richardson.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Quote de Jour wants your opinion!
"Congratulations to Mike Huckabee, to Barack Obama. ... Iowa has spoken. Cold, white people have had their say. Tomorrow night is New Hampshire, where colder, whiter people will have their say. And if all goes right, Obama and Huckabee will soon be the president of Scandinavia."
-Daily Show Host Jon Stewart
In all seriousness, what do you think of the lack of diversity and small populations of Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that seemingly have the biggest impact on this election?
According to CNN.com, New Hampshire and Iowa are 96.0% and 93.9% white, respectively.
Thoughts?
-Daily Show Host Jon Stewart
In all seriousness, what do you think of the lack of diversity and small populations of Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that seemingly have the biggest impact on this election?
According to CNN.com, New Hampshire and Iowa are 96.0% and 93.9% white, respectively.
Thoughts?
Sunday, January 6, 2008
"The Big Mo'."
In the 1980 primaries, George Herbert Walker Bush edged out Ronald Reagan in the Iowa Caucus by two percentage points. When he was asked about his victory later, he claimed that he had "the Big Mo'," momentum. A word and concept that has as much bearing in politics as it does in college football, momentum can be a maker or breaker in the world of Presidential primaries.
As in anything, momentum comes from all things related to Presidential politics. Primarily, momentum in the Presidential primary race comes from victories in early primaries such as Iowa and New Hampshire, but momentum also comes from endorsements and debates. The polls (from CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire) can speak for themselves:
_____December 27-30.....January 4-5........January 5-6
Obama________30%___________33%___________39%
Clinton________34%___________33%___________29%
Edwards_______17%___________20%___________16%
Richardson______5%____________4% ____________7%
**Note: Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were not included in this poll, but were included in the CNN poll.
Between December 27-30 and January 4-5, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus, which surprisingly only boosted him 3% in the polls. However, on January 5th, the Democratic candidates participated in a debate hosted by ABC, WMUR and (yay, youth!) Facebook. Obama and Edwards were able to mostly subdue Hillary Clinton in the debate, forcing her into spots where her very visceral responses seems to have lost her the debate. (As an aside, it's my opinion that Hillary lost the debate more than any candidate won it.) As a result, Senator Obama's momentum has launched his campaign into the foreground of the Democratic nomination discussion.
Now you might be asking what about Mike Huckabee, the Republican winner of Iowa? Well, Huckabee's campaign in Iowa is not necessarily a "fluke" but it is very different. Mike Huckabee's main support comes from Christian evangelicals, a group which is a significant minority in New Hampshire, undercutting his support there. This also undercuts his momentum. However, if the first primary was in South Carolina, which has a significant evangelical population, Huckabee might find that his momentum would carry him all the way to the Republican nomination.
We can see here how momentum is huge in a tight race. Obama's momentum brought him through a dead heat with Hillary Clinton and now polls predict him gaining a huge victory over her in the primary on Tuesday, January 8th.
-----------
Now, for the fun part of my post: (for me anyways) informed predictions of the Republican and Democratic primary race!
Republicans
Iowa has gone to Huckabee, as we saw last Thursday. Based on the latest CNN polls, I predict that John McCain will win the primary race in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, I predict that Mike Huckabee will prevail in South Carolina, but Rudy Giuliani will win several Super Tuesday states, including Florida. This might make some of the late primaries very critical, and we just might get through April without a clear-cut Republican nominee, making the Republican National Convention in August very, very interesting. I believe if Mitt Romney is unable to take New Hampshire but rebounds in Michigan, his campaign will live to fight another day.
Democrats
On the Democratic side, I believe that Barack Obama will have a decisive victory in New Hampshire. After this, I believe the large African American constituency in South Carolina will carry him through to the Democratic nomination. An important thing to note is that since 1968, only 1 candidate (Democratic or Republican) has lost their party's nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina's large African American voter base will solidify Barack Obama's nomination for the Democratic Party.
As in anything, momentum comes from all things related to Presidential politics. Primarily, momentum in the Presidential primary race comes from victories in early primaries such as Iowa and New Hampshire, but momentum also comes from endorsements and debates. The polls (from CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire) can speak for themselves:
_____December 27-30.....January 4-5........January 5-6
Obama________30%___________33%___________39%
Clinton________34%___________33%___________29%
Edwards_______17%___________20%___________16%
Richardson______5%____________4% ____________7%
**Note: Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were not included in this poll, but were included in the CNN poll.
Between December 27-30 and January 4-5, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus, which surprisingly only boosted him 3% in the polls. However, on January 5th, the Democratic candidates participated in a debate hosted by ABC, WMUR and (yay, youth!) Facebook. Obama and Edwards were able to mostly subdue Hillary Clinton in the debate, forcing her into spots where her very visceral responses seems to have lost her the debate. (As an aside, it's my opinion that Hillary lost the debate more than any candidate won it.) As a result, Senator Obama's momentum has launched his campaign into the foreground of the Democratic nomination discussion.
Now you might be asking what about Mike Huckabee, the Republican winner of Iowa? Well, Huckabee's campaign in Iowa is not necessarily a "fluke" but it is very different. Mike Huckabee's main support comes from Christian evangelicals, a group which is a significant minority in New Hampshire, undercutting his support there. This also undercuts his momentum. However, if the first primary was in South Carolina, which has a significant evangelical population, Huckabee might find that his momentum would carry him all the way to the Republican nomination.
We can see here how momentum is huge in a tight race. Obama's momentum brought him through a dead heat with Hillary Clinton and now polls predict him gaining a huge victory over her in the primary on Tuesday, January 8th.
-----------
Now, for the fun part of my post: (for me anyways) informed predictions of the Republican and Democratic primary race!
Republicans
Iowa has gone to Huckabee, as we saw last Thursday. Based on the latest CNN polls, I predict that John McCain will win the primary race in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, I predict that Mike Huckabee will prevail in South Carolina, but Rudy Giuliani will win several Super Tuesday states, including Florida. This might make some of the late primaries very critical, and we just might get through April without a clear-cut Republican nominee, making the Republican National Convention in August very, very interesting. I believe if Mitt Romney is unable to take New Hampshire but rebounds in Michigan, his campaign will live to fight another day.
Democrats
On the Democratic side, I believe that Barack Obama will have a decisive victory in New Hampshire. After this, I believe the large African American constituency in South Carolina will carry him through to the Democratic nomination. An important thing to note is that since 1968, only 1 candidate (Democratic or Republican) has lost their party's nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina's large African American voter base will solidify Barack Obama's nomination for the Democratic Party.
Candidate Quizzes
Not technically in the Know Your Candidate series, but the label seemed appropriate since some of the quizzes match you with a candidate.
Below are links to political quizzes that match you up with an ideology or a candidate. They are not perfect, and several questions are in some cases vague or too black and white, but they will hopefully give you a general idea about where you lie on the political spectrum and which candidates you are closest too.
http://www.selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460
http://www.speakout.com/VoteMatch/senate2006.asp?quiz=2008
http://www.gotoquiz.com/candidates/2008-quiz.html
http://glassbooth.org/
http://www.politicalcompass.org/test (Note, when you get a result you'll see a general picture towards the center, scroll down)
http://www.theadvocates.org/quiz.html
http://madrabbit.net/webrabbit/quizshow.html
Enjoy.
Below are links to political quizzes that match you up with an ideology or a candidate. They are not perfect, and several questions are in some cases vague or too black and white, but they will hopefully give you a general idea about where you lie on the political spectrum and which candidates you are closest too.
http://www.selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460
http://www.speakout.com/VoteMatch/senate2006.asp?quiz=2008
http://www.gotoquiz.com/candidates/2008-quiz.html
http://glassbooth.org/
http://www.politicalcompass.org/test (Note, when you get a result you'll see a general picture towards the center, scroll down)
http://www.theadvocates.org/quiz.html
http://madrabbit.net/webrabbit/quizshow.html
Enjoy.
Caucus Results
Well, the Iowa Caucuses have come and gone, and the eye of the nation has been on New Hampshire. However, last Saturday, January 5, there was another caucus in Wyoming for the Republicans. Mike Huckabee took Iowa for the Republicans while Wyoming went for Mitt Romney, and on the Democrat side Barack Obama took the Iowa caucuses. However, due to superdelegates, Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead so far over Obama nationally so far.
Superdelegates are guaranteed delegates from each state that aren't pledged to a single candidate. The current results on CNN come from predictions of a superdelegate's actions or statements from the superdelegate. Superdelegates are typically governors, Senators, etc.
But, without further ado, the caucus results:
Iowa (Democrat)
Obama: 38%--16
Edwards: 30%--14
Clinton: 29%--15
Richardson: 2%--0
Biden: 1%--0
Uncommitted: 0%--0
Dodd: 0%--0
Gravel: 0%--0
Kucinich: 0%--0
Iowa (Republican)
Huckabee: 34%--17
Romney: 25%--12
Thompson: 13%--3
McCain: 13%--3
Paul: 10%--2
Giuliani: 4%--0
Hunter: 1%--0
Wyoming (Republican)
Romney: 67%--8
Thompson: 25%--3
Hunter: 8%--1
Giuliani: 0%--0
Huckabee: 0%--0
McCain: 0%--0
Paul: 0%--0
I wrote these with the percentage of the vote followed by the number of delegates awarded. Here are the current national numbers, including superdelegates. The percentage of total delegates awarded so far followed by the number of delegates that candidate has. Please note that the number of delegates awarded per state is left completely up to the party and that accounts for the disparity in the number of Democratic and Republican delegates. More Democratic superdelegates have been factored in as well.
Democrat
Clinton: 56%--169
Obama: 22%--66
Edwards: 16%--47
Richardson: 6%--19
Kucinich: 0%--1
Mike Gravel: 0%--0
Joe Biden: 0%--0*
Chris Dodd: 0%--0*
*These two have already dropped out, so you probably won't hear anymore of them on this blog.
Republican
Romney: 44%--26
Huckabee: 34%--20
Thompson: 10%--6
McCain: 5%--3
Paul: 3%--2
Giuliani: 2%--1
Hunter: 2%--1
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R
---
My Take
Dems
The win in Iowa was great for Barack Obama. It puts him in the spotlight and gives him valuable momentum which he will need since Hillary Clinton already has a sizable corps of delegates on her side. John Edwards went all or nothing in Iowa, and only scraped by Clinton with a second place finish. This bad for him, seeing that he is much further behind in New Hampshire and the other early states than he was in Iowa (http://tinyurl.com/23hw94).
Richardson finished low, but his numbers elsewhere don't make it look like a comeback is in the making, so in my opinion it is safe to assume the Democratic race is now a three horse race. The race is close in South Carolina, but Nevada and Florida are currently strongly in Clinton's hands, so Obama will need strong showings in both New Hampshire and South Carolina to gain the traction necessary to carry him to the nomination.
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are already out, Mike Gravel consistently polls 0%, and Dennis Kucinich is in the 1%-3%, so they are inconsequential barring an incredible showing in New Hampshire or South Carolina if they stay that long.
GOP
Mike Huckabee won by a surprisingly large margin over Mitt Romney, and while Romney did come back with a victory in Wyoming, the country and the media is talking about New Hampshire not Wyoming, so that will serve as little more than an addition to his ultimate total. Rudy Giuliani finished poorly, as expected, but still maintains his leads nationally as well as in Nevada and Florida--the two big primaries before Super Tuesday. However, his numbers remain low in New Hampshire and South Carolina where his rivals are strong.
John McCain is leading in New Hampshire, Huckabee leads in South Carolina, and Romney maintains a strong base in each. If Huckabee can take first or a close second in both, he can gain the momentum needed. Romney's early leads have been and are eroding, and after the abysmal Iowa showing he needs a victory and needs it soon. McCain needs New Hampshire since his South Carolina position is behind Romney, Huckabee, and even Giuliani. McCain is a popular figure who is good at getting the Independent vote out, so New Hampshire can be the key to his taking the nomination.
Fred Thompson maintains respectable numbers in all four early primaries, but he has too many rivals far ahead, the next primary or two is do or die for him, even more so for Ron Paul who has decent support in New Hampshire (10%) but is in the low single digits elsewhere. New Hampshire is his pivotal battle. Duncan Hunter, while taking a delegate in Wyoming, is at 1% or 2% elsewhere and is thus inconsequential.
Final Word
Like in a playoff series, the second matchup is much closer scrutinized than the first. I think that New Hampshire will give us a better idea since the fate of so many candidates, like I said earlier, depends on this state. Until New Hampshire has voted, I don't think anyone can accurately call this race.
Early State Info:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/nevada.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
Superdelegates are guaranteed delegates from each state that aren't pledged to a single candidate. The current results on CNN come from predictions of a superdelegate's actions or statements from the superdelegate. Superdelegates are typically governors, Senators, etc.
But, without further ado, the caucus results:
Iowa (Democrat)
Obama: 38%--16
Edwards: 30%--14
Clinton: 29%--15
Richardson: 2%--0
Biden: 1%--0
Uncommitted: 0%--0
Dodd: 0%--0
Gravel: 0%--0
Kucinich: 0%--0
Iowa (Republican)
Huckabee: 34%--17
Romney: 25%--12
Thompson: 13%--3
McCain: 13%--3
Paul: 10%--2
Giuliani: 4%--0
Hunter: 1%--0
Wyoming (Republican)
Romney: 67%--8
Thompson: 25%--3
Hunter: 8%--1
Giuliani: 0%--0
Huckabee: 0%--0
McCain: 0%--0
Paul: 0%--0
I wrote these with the percentage of the vote followed by the number of delegates awarded. Here are the current national numbers, including superdelegates. The percentage of total delegates awarded so far followed by the number of delegates that candidate has. Please note that the number of delegates awarded per state is left completely up to the party and that accounts for the disparity in the number of Democratic and Republican delegates. More Democratic superdelegates have been factored in as well.
Democrat
Clinton: 56%--169
Obama: 22%--66
Edwards: 16%--47
Richardson: 6%--19
Kucinich: 0%--1
Mike Gravel: 0%--0
Joe Biden: 0%--0*
Chris Dodd: 0%--0*
*These two have already dropped out, so you probably won't hear anymore of them on this blog.
Republican
Romney: 44%--26
Huckabee: 34%--20
Thompson: 10%--6
McCain: 5%--3
Paul: 3%--2
Giuliani: 2%--1
Hunter: 2%--1
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R
---
My Take
Dems
The win in Iowa was great for Barack Obama. It puts him in the spotlight and gives him valuable momentum which he will need since Hillary Clinton already has a sizable corps of delegates on her side. John Edwards went all or nothing in Iowa, and only scraped by Clinton with a second place finish. This bad for him, seeing that he is much further behind in New Hampshire and the other early states than he was in Iowa (http://tinyurl.com/23hw94).
Richardson finished low, but his numbers elsewhere don't make it look like a comeback is in the making, so in my opinion it is safe to assume the Democratic race is now a three horse race. The race is close in South Carolina, but Nevada and Florida are currently strongly in Clinton's hands, so Obama will need strong showings in both New Hampshire and South Carolina to gain the traction necessary to carry him to the nomination.
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are already out, Mike Gravel consistently polls 0%, and Dennis Kucinich is in the 1%-3%, so they are inconsequential barring an incredible showing in New Hampshire or South Carolina if they stay that long.
GOP
Mike Huckabee won by a surprisingly large margin over Mitt Romney, and while Romney did come back with a victory in Wyoming, the country and the media is talking about New Hampshire not Wyoming, so that will serve as little more than an addition to his ultimate total. Rudy Giuliani finished poorly, as expected, but still maintains his leads nationally as well as in Nevada and Florida--the two big primaries before Super Tuesday. However, his numbers remain low in New Hampshire and South Carolina where his rivals are strong.
John McCain is leading in New Hampshire, Huckabee leads in South Carolina, and Romney maintains a strong base in each. If Huckabee can take first or a close second in both, he can gain the momentum needed. Romney's early leads have been and are eroding, and after the abysmal Iowa showing he needs a victory and needs it soon. McCain needs New Hampshire since his South Carolina position is behind Romney, Huckabee, and even Giuliani. McCain is a popular figure who is good at getting the Independent vote out, so New Hampshire can be the key to his taking the nomination.
Fred Thompson maintains respectable numbers in all four early primaries, but he has too many rivals far ahead, the next primary or two is do or die for him, even more so for Ron Paul who has decent support in New Hampshire (10%) but is in the low single digits elsewhere. New Hampshire is his pivotal battle. Duncan Hunter, while taking a delegate in Wyoming, is at 1% or 2% elsewhere and is thus inconsequential.
Final Word
Like in a playoff series, the second matchup is much closer scrutinized than the first. I think that New Hampshire will give us a better idea since the fate of so many candidates, like I said earlier, depends on this state. Until New Hampshire has voted, I don't think anyone can accurately call this race.
Early State Info:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/nevada.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
Monday, December 24, 2007
Iowa Caucus
So here's a post for all who may be wondering why every time you turn on the news you here something about that lovely, middle of nowhere state Iowa. Well the answer is… the Iowa Caucus. For those of you who still have no idea as to what I am talking about, let me explain.
A caucus is most generally defined as a meeting of members of a political party or a political movement. Basically it's the way Iowa chooses to vote for its presidential nominee.
The Iowa caucus has been the first electoral event (caucus or primary) for nominating the presidential candidate since 1972. Getting to be the first state in the nation to vote doesn't just give Iowa bragging rights, it makes Iowa a powerhouse state for Presidential nominee campaigning. Each presidential candidate, on average, can spend anywhere from $1,674, 000 to $5,022,000 just to ensure a finish within the top half of the Iowa Caucuses. Iowa 's vote has always played a major role in influencing the way the rest of America votes, this year however; Iowa has caught everyone completely off guard.
*Here is an example of a National poll from October 10, 2007 (CNN):
DEMOCRATS................ REPUBLICANS...............
Clinton 47%....................Giuliani 27%
Obama 21%....................Thompson 17%
Edwards 12% .................Romney 14%
Richardson 3% ...............McCain 13%
Kucinich 2%....................Huckabee 6%
Biden 1%........................Paul 2%
Chris Dodd 1%................Hunter 1%
*Now here are the Iowa Caucus polls from December 9 , 2007(CNN):
DEMOCRATS……..…... REPBULICANS……....
Obama 33%.................Huckabee 31%
Clinton 24%................. Romney 22%
Edwards 24%...............Giuliani 9%
Richardson 9%............ Thompson 9%
Biden 3%.....................Paul 7%
Chris Dodd 1%............ McCain 7%
Kucinich 1%................ Hunter 1%
So basically Iowa voters went against the rest of the nation and chose Obama (D) and Huckabee (R) instead of Clinton (D) and Giuliani (R) as their candidates of choice.
Now here is another national poll, from December 12, 2007 , after Iowa 's polls had been released(CNN):
DEMOCRATS................ REPUBLICANS...............
Clinton 40%................... Giuliani 24
Obama 30%.................... Huckabee 22%
Edwards 12%.................. Romney 16%
Richardson 4%................ McCain 13%
Biden 4%....................... Thompson 10%
Kucinich 2%................... Paul 6%
Chris Dodd 2%............... Hunter 2%
Iowa favored Huckabee on the Republican side and as a result he skyrocketed 16% in national polls. And even though Iowa's favorite democrat (Obama) hasn't managed to surpass Clinton in national polls, he has managed to tighten the gap to only 10%. These polls are a great example of the "band wagon effect" that Iowa has over the rest of the nation, and hopefully should explain why Iowa plays such a huge roll in the Presidential nominee elections.
*these polls are about two weeks old, and some numbers have changed. http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm this site updates about every 2 to 3 weeks with new polls and the latest date they have is December 18th,
*Also please remember that all polls come with about a 4% margin of error
A caucus is most generally defined as a meeting of members of a political party or a political movement. Basically it's the way Iowa chooses to vote for its presidential nominee.
The Iowa caucus has been the first electoral event (caucus or primary) for nominating the presidential candidate since 1972. Getting to be the first state in the nation to vote doesn't just give Iowa bragging rights, it makes Iowa a powerhouse state for Presidential nominee campaigning. Each presidential candidate, on average, can spend anywhere from $1,674, 000 to $5,022,000 just to ensure a finish within the top half of the Iowa Caucuses. Iowa 's vote has always played a major role in influencing the way the rest of America votes, this year however; Iowa has caught everyone completely off guard.
*Here is an example of a National poll from October 10, 2007 (CNN):
DEMOCRATS................ REPUBLICANS...............
Clinton 47%....................Giuliani 27%
Obama 21%....................Thompson 17%
Edwards 12% .................Romney 14%
Richardson 3% ...............McCain 13%
Kucinich 2%....................Huckabee 6%
Biden 1%........................Paul 2%
Chris Dodd 1%................Hunter 1%
*Now here are the Iowa Caucus polls from December 9 , 2007(CNN):
DEMOCRATS……..…... REPBULICANS……....
Obama 33%.................Huckabee 31%
Clinton 24%................. Romney 22%
Edwards 24%...............Giuliani 9%
Richardson 9%............ Thompson 9%
Biden 3%.....................Paul 7%
Chris Dodd 1%............ McCain 7%
Kucinich 1%................ Hunter 1%
So basically Iowa voters went against the rest of the nation and chose Obama (D) and Huckabee (R) instead of Clinton (D) and Giuliani (R) as their candidates of choice.
Now here is another national poll, from December 12, 2007 , after Iowa 's polls had been released(CNN):
DEMOCRATS................ REPUBLICANS...............
Clinton 40%................... Giuliani 24
Obama 30%.................... Huckabee 22%
Edwards 12%.................. Romney 16%
Richardson 4%................ McCain 13%
Biden 4%....................... Thompson 10%
Kucinich 2%................... Paul 6%
Chris Dodd 2%............... Hunter 2%
Iowa favored Huckabee on the Republican side and as a result he skyrocketed 16% in national polls. And even though Iowa's favorite democrat (Obama) hasn't managed to surpass Clinton in national polls, he has managed to tighten the gap to only 10%. These polls are a great example of the "band wagon effect" that Iowa has over the rest of the nation, and hopefully should explain why Iowa plays such a huge roll in the Presidential nominee elections.
*these polls are about two weeks old, and some numbers have changed. http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm this site updates about every 2 to 3 weeks with new polls and the latest date they have is December 18th,
*Also please remember that all polls come with about a 4% margin of error
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Republican Field Narrows: Tancredo Drops Out
Tom Tancredo dropped out of the race for the White House today with only two weeks to go until the Iowa Caucus. He said he was doing so because he failed to gain traction with the primary voters. He was most notable for his stance on illegal immigration, believing a temporary moratorium on all immigration, legal and illegal, was needed while the United States secured its border. In the recent Youtube debates, he said no to a mission to Mars believing that America needs to spend less, not more.
He doesn't call it a complete loss, saying that he is pleased that immigration is a top issue in the Republican party and the nation as a whole. He has already endorsed Mitt Romney.
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Personally, it looks like this might be the help Duncan Hunter, who has also focused on illegal immigration this campaign (although he doesn't support a moratorium), needs to push past Iowa and keep some steam going in his run. Although the 3% could help Romney as well since he has been struggling recently.
More Info:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/20/trancredo/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tancredo
http://www.ontheissues.org/Tom_Tancredo.htm
Any Thoughts? A relatively inconsequential candidate, but 3% can be the start of a lot this late in the race.
He doesn't call it a complete loss, saying that he is pleased that immigration is a top issue in the Republican party and the nation as a whole. He has already endorsed Mitt Romney.
---
Personally, it looks like this might be the help Duncan Hunter, who has also focused on illegal immigration this campaign (although he doesn't support a moratorium), needs to push past Iowa and keep some steam going in his run. Although the 3% could help Romney as well since he has been struggling recently.
More Info:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/20/trancredo/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tancredo
http://www.ontheissues.org/Tom_Tancredo.htm
Any Thoughts? A relatively inconsequential candidate, but 3% can be the start of a lot this late in the race.
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