Nevada Caucuses; South Carolina Republican Primary

Both the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina GOP Primary were held yesterday (the Democratic primary will be held next week). In Nevada, Hillary Clinton edged out Barack Obama, and Mitt Romney blew out the GOP field with over 50% of the voted. The Internet sensation, Ron Paul, had a surprise second place finish. In South Carolina, John McCain won a tight race with Mike Huckabee despite counties in McCain leaning parts of South Carolina running out of ballots early on.

The scores are percentage of vote--number of delegates awarded.

Nevada (D)
Clinton: 51%--12
Obama: 45%--13
Edwards: 4%--0
Uncommitted: 0%
Kucinich: 0%

Nevada (R)
Romney: 51%--18
Paul: 14%--4
McCain: 13%--4
Huckabee: 8%--2
Thompson: 8%--2
Giuliani: 4%--1
Hunter: 2%--0

South Carolina (R)
McCain: 33%--19
Huckabee: 30%--5
Thompson: 16%--0
Romney: 15%--0
Paul: 4%--0
Giuliani: 2%--0
Hunter: 0%--0

By a caucus rule, Barack Obama actually won more delegates than Hillary Clinton in the Nevada caucus despite the fact that she got over 50% of the vote. Following these two poor performances, Duncan Hunter officially dropped out of the Republican race.

Here is how the candidates stand in terms of overall delegates:

Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Clinton: 210
Obama: 123
Edwards: 52
Kucinich: 1

Republicans (1,191 needed to win)
Romney: 72
McCain: 38
Huckabee: 29
Thompson: 8
Paul: 6
Giuliani: 2
Hunter: 1

My Take

Dems
The next contest is next Saturday, the 26th, in South Carolina. South Carolina is beginning to look more and more like a do or die state for Obama as Clinton took her third state in a row and maintains leads in national polls while Obama holds a relatively slim 44-38 point lead in South Carolina in pre-Nevada polls. John Edwards, a native son who won there in 2004, is on his last gasps as Obama and Clinton routinely take 40+% each in polls and primaries after Iowa. If he maintains some level of support through at least Super Tuesday, he can gain leverage by throwing his delegates in one direction or another if neither Clinton nor Obama gain the needed majority, but his presidential hopes are all but over.

South Carolina will be critical.

GOP
The next GOP contest is on January 29 in Florida. Some degree of clarity is emerging from the Republican race as Mitt Romney maintains a large delegate count in comparison to his rivals. He has finished at least third in five states, and first in two. John McCain remains popular nationally and has moved into second in the delegate count. If he can rally Independent support he can start to make a charge in Florida, Maine, and Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee's star is beginning to fade as he has come up short in all events after Iowa. He will need to do well in Florida and other southern states to maintain momentum. Ron Paul has finished nowhere near where he was hyped by his fans and it is becoming more and more clear that he will not be able to win. Fred Thompson has been floundering since his hype died down, and a third place finish in South Carolina can either be his last twitch or perhaps the start of some traction. He will need to appeal to conservatives in a southern state like Florida to stage a comeback and perform well there, in Maine, and on Super Tuesday. He proved in the last debate that he can be strong and dynamic, but it might almost be too late to change the tide. Rudy Giuliani is in a delicate situation. Mitt Romney has eaten up delegate and McCain is soaring in national polls and in Florida. He finished with 2% in South Carolina and will need victory or a very close second in Florida to feasibly continue the campaign in my view. He said he was going to bank on Florida--now, it might be his last hope.

The candidates have a little over a week to work in Florida. After that, the picture should be clearer yet of how the GOP will play out.

Florida/South Carolina Info.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html

Other Sites:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/hunter-exits-presidential-race/