Today, January 15th, the state of Michigan held its primaries for both the Democratic and Republican party. In the Republican Party, Mitt Romney won the GOP primary, with roughly 39% of the vote (as of this posting, only 74% of the Republican votes have been counted). These results are certainly indicative of the state of Michigan's economy and job market; Mitt Romney is seen primarily as the candidate of the "fiscal conservative." What this means is that money-minded Republicans support him and the state of Michigan's economy likely lent Romney many votes from Michigan Republicans. Another argument proposed is that Romney was able to garner votes because of his "favorite son" status; or a native Michigander which lead many to vote for him in light of his history in Michigan. Romney will use the Michigan primary to propel his campaign and continue through Super Tuesday, although it was unlikely he would have dropped out of the race had he lost Michigan. Romney was also aided by the poor weather throughout Michigan today; low voter turnout helped to increase Romney's comfortable lead.
John McCain's campaign is slowed by the results of this primary, as his momentum from New Hampshire becomes dulled by his second place finish. McCain won the state of Michigan in 2000, but as Henry McMaster, Attorney General of South Carolina aptly stated: "If Michigan had a history of picking our nominee for president, John would already be president." McCain will be continuing in the race through Super Tuesday (or "Super Duper Tuesday", as it is sometimes referred to), although his campaign funds are diminishing rapidly.
Rudy Giuliani was also a surprise, as he only garnered 3% of the vote. While Giuliani did not bother to campaign in Michigan, the fact that he gained such a small percent of the vote in an industrial, Northern state was surprising to many analysts.
On the Democratic side, the Democratic primary was a wash considering Hillary Clinton, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were the only candidates to keep their name on the ballot because of the Michigan Democratic Party's decision to break party rules and move the primary up to a date considered too close to the New Hampshire primary by the Democratic National Party. Because the Michigan Democratic Party chose to do this, the Democratic National Party has chosen to withhold Michigan delegates from the Democratic Convention this August. Hillary received 56% of the vote, while "Uncommitted" received 39% of the vote. An "Uncommitted" vote is supposed to represent the voters who would have voted for Barack Obama or John Edwards, but I am having a hard time believing that Hillary Clinton would have won Michigan with 56% against her Democratic rivals.
The more positive for Democrats, however, were the results of the Republican primary. A win for Mitt Romney splits the Iowa Caucus and the first two primaries three ways for the Republicans and ensures there is no clear cut frontrunner going in to Super Tuesday. With Rudy Giuliani campaigning and polling strongly on Super Tuesday states, a four way race might (although it is more likely a two way race) emerge going into the Republican National Convention in August, something that has not happened since the 1964 Republican National Convention. Another effect is that the Republicans will now be forced to spend more money fighting each other than fighting Democrats, which helps the Democrats and makes the Republicans look worse based on the lengths they take to attack each other.
The Michigan primary has done what the state party has wanted it to do; make Michigan more important in the primary race. The GOP is the most shaken up by this primary and the fact that the Democratic party came out in such numbers to vote for an inconsequential primary sent a very important message from the Democrats in Michigan to the Republican party: they are searching for change, and they do not believe the Republican nominees provide the change that they are looking for.
Sources Used:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MI
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
I agree that it's kinda funny that she only got 56% of the vote, but I think we have to consider a large amount of democratic voters didn't go out to vote in Michigan because they feel our voice doesn't matter. Either way if we would of had a "real" democratic primary that could of made or break Clinton.
Either way I think the fact people even went out voted means people are really eager for a democratic president in Michigan. So, this is pretty good sign for the democratic party.
Post a Comment