"The Big Mo'."

In the 1980 primaries, George Herbert Walker Bush edged out Ronald Reagan in the Iowa Caucus by two percentage points. When he was asked about his victory later, he claimed that he had "the Big Mo'," momentum. A word and concept that has as much bearing in politics as it does in college football, momentum can be a maker or breaker in the world of Presidential primaries.

As in anything, momentum comes from all things related to Presidential politics. Primarily, momentum in the Presidential primary race comes from victories in early primaries such as Iowa and New Hampshire, but momentum also comes from endorsements and debates. The polls (from CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire) can speak for themselves:

_____December 27-30.....January 4-5........January 5-6

Obama________30%___________33%___________39%
Clinton________34%___________33%___________29%
Edwards_______17%___________20%___________16%
Richardson______5%____________4% ____________7%

**Note: Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were not included in this poll, but were included in the CNN poll.

Between December 27-30 and January 4-5, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus, which surprisingly only boosted him 3% in the polls. However, on January 5th, the Democratic candidates participated in a debate hosted by ABC, WMUR and (yay, youth!) Facebook. Obama and Edwards were able to mostly subdue Hillary Clinton in the debate, forcing her into spots where her very visceral responses seems to have lost her the debate. (As an aside, it's my opinion that Hillary lost the debate more than any candidate won it.) As a result, Senator Obama's momentum has launched his campaign into the foreground of the Democratic nomination discussion.

Now you might be asking what about Mike Huckabee, the Republican winner of Iowa? Well, Huckabee's campaign in Iowa is not necessarily a "fluke" but it is very different. Mike Huckabee's main support comes from Christian evangelicals, a group which is a significant minority in New Hampshire, undercutting his support there. This also undercuts his momentum. However, if the first primary was in South Carolina, which has a significant evangelical population, Huckabee might find that his momentum would carry him all the way to the Republican nomination.

We can see here how momentum is huge in a tight race. Obama's momentum brought him through a dead heat with Hillary Clinton and now polls predict him gaining a huge victory over her in the primary on Tuesday, January 8th.

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Now, for the fun part of my post: (for me anyways) informed predictions of the Republican and Democratic primary race!

Republicans

Iowa has gone to Huckabee, as we saw last Thursday. Based on the latest CNN polls, I predict that John McCain will win the primary race in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, I predict that Mike Huckabee will prevail in South Carolina, but Rudy Giuliani will win several Super Tuesday states, including Florida. This might make some of the late primaries very critical, and we just might get through April without a clear-cut Republican nominee, making the Republican National Convention in August very, very interesting. I believe if Mitt Romney is unable to take New Hampshire but rebounds in Michigan, his campaign will live to fight another day.

Democrats

On the Democratic side, I believe that Barack Obama will have a decisive victory in New Hampshire. After this, I believe the large African American constituency in South Carolina will carry him through to the Democratic nomination. An important thing to note is that since 1968, only 1 candidate (Democratic or Republican) has lost their party's nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina's large African American voter base will solidify Barack Obama's nomination for the Democratic Party.