McCain wraps the nomination; Clinton and Obama march on

Yesterday, Tuesday, March 4th (dubbed "Crucial Tuesday" by some analysts) was a make or break day for both Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton. Tuesday's results are as follows:

Democrats

Hillary Clinton

Texas- 51% (majority)
Ohio- 54% (majority)
Vermont- 39%
Rhode Island- 58% (majority)


Barack Obama

Texas- 48%
Ohio- 44%
Vermont- 59% (majority)
Rhode Island- 41%


My analysis: Crucial Tuesday would have been the final test for Hillary Clinton; if she had lost Texas or Ohio her campaign would likely have been over and with that the Democratic primary race. Clinton's 10 point win in Ohio was a huge surge for her campaign, with that she snapped Obama's 11 primary winning streak. When the final results for Texas came in, Clinton had only a 3 point lead but she can still claim victory in the Lone Star State. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic primaries usually use a proportional delegate count; 51% of the Texas vote means (more or less) 51% of the delegate count. Obama had 102 delegate lead before Crucial Tuesday votes, and now he commands a (CNN projected) 96 delegate lead. As you can see, although Clinton came out victorious in three of the primaries, the delegate count shifted very little due to the proportional delegate distribution. Clinton's strategy at this point will be to win Pennsylvania and use her superdelegate support to win the nomination; Obama's chief strategy at this point is to basically derail Clinton's strategy by strong campaigning for the April 22 competition in Pennsylvania.

In Texas, Hillary Clinton won a majority of Latino voters, older voters, less educated (high school or less), voters on the issue of Health Care, and voters who decided in recent weeks. Clinton's win among Latino voters is evidence of enduring Latino support from the administration of Bill Clinton. Older voters typically support Hillary Clinton and that trend has held true in every primary and caucus so far. Less educated voters in Texas voting for Clinton can be seen as a reflection of Clinton's strong working class support. Clinton's win amongst Health Care voters is a reflection of her strong and well-outlined plan for health care, and her win among voters who recently decided who to vote for is a reflection both of her strong anti-Obama ads being run in the past few days and her strong performance in last week's debate.

Obama took a majority of higher educated voters, the black vote, the youth vote, and voters on the issue if Iraq. Obama's strong performance in higher educated voters is likely a reflection of Obama's strong support on college campuses: most college voters also fall into the youth bracket. Obama's support from blacks and the youth have been a staple of his campaign and those two demographics have consistently supported Obama. Voters on Iraq favor Obama for his anti-war stance on the war since its inception and also because Clinton voted to approve the war.



GOP

John McCain (majorities in every race)

Texas- 51%
Ohio- 60%
Vermont- 72%
Rhode Island- 65%

Mike Huckabee

Texas- 38%
Ohio- 31%
Vermont- 14%
Rhode Island- 22%

Ron Paul

Texas- 5%
Ohio- 5%
Vermont- 7%
Rhode Island- 7%

My analysis: John McCain locked the nomination on Crucial Tuesday, winning all four of the states by 13 point margins (or higher) and cruising past the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. McCain currently sits at 1, 289 projected delegates, a comfortable margin past the needed delegate count. What this means is that McCain will be able to spend the next two months focusing more on emphasizing his own strengths and downplaying his Democratic rivals while infighting in the Democratic party will detract from their own anti-McCain rhetoric. This extra time helps McCain to play up his strengths and prepare for the Democratic assault nearing the general election. Mike Huckabee, expecting greater success in the March 4 primaries, backed out of the race earlier today saying "[I] Wish it would have ended differently, but it is what it is." Strangely enough, Ron Paul still considers the race to be on, his website* has no indication of Paul dropping out of the race. In addition, today McCain received the official endorsement of President George W. Bush at the White House. Now that the primary season for the Republicans is over, I anticipate a full GOP backing of McCain. Although many right-wing pundits are still withholding support for McCain, I believe that soon they will give McCain their full endorsements and prepare along with him for the upcoming general election.


Sources used: (apologies for the inundation, but this is a complete list.)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#RI
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/huckabee/index.html
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/