"Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth."
-John F. Kennedy
Monday, January 7, 2008
Sunday, January 6, 2008
What do you think?
Ok guys, here's a post where everyone can hear your voice. It's not hard, I promise!
So here it is; who vs. who will give the Republicans/Democrats the best chance of getting into office? Try to put aside who you personally like and try to think who would be best for the party you argue in favor of.
Here's what I think:
In my opinion I feel that the Republicans best chance would be Huckabee Vs Clinton.
Personally my Republican favorites are Giuliani and Thompson, but I don't think that either could pull a win in the presidential election. Giuliani, in my opinion, is probably the best overall Republican leader (not most experienced, just a good leader); however, I feel that his pro-choice views and his three marriages would lead some of the extreme Christian conservatives to stay home on Election Day. And Thompson, well I think his level headed ways would be just what the country needs right now; however he just doesn't have a strong enough following to even make him an option in the election. Huckabee, on the other hand, has a strong following with the Christian conservatives and would easily get their votes. I also feel that Huckabee has a very likable personality and easily relates many constituents, which may lead some independents who base votes on personality to vote Republican.
The reason I picked Clinton as the best option for the republican's opponent is based on my belief that many Obama supporters would just simply refuse to vote for
her. I completely understand that is 2007 and that things have changed, but I really feel that there are thousands of men and women out there who feel that a woman could not handle the Presidency. I also think Hilary lacks the personality that Obama has and would lose votes that way.
So there it is. You don't have to write out a paragraph or anything, just say what you think!
So here it is; who vs. who will give the Republicans/Democrats the best chance of getting into office? Try to put aside who you personally like and try to think who would be best for the party you argue in favor of.
Here's what I think:
In my opinion I feel that the Republicans best chance would be Huckabee Vs Clinton.
Personally my Republican favorites are Giuliani and Thompson, but I don't think that either could pull a win in the presidential election. Giuliani, in my opinion, is probably the best overall Republican leader (not most experienced, just a good leader); however, I feel that his pro-choice views and his three marriages would lead some of the extreme Christian conservatives to stay home on Election Day. And Thompson, well I think his level headed ways would be just what the country needs right now; however he just doesn't have a strong enough following to even make him an option in the election. Huckabee, on the other hand, has a strong following with the Christian conservatives and would easily get their votes. I also feel that Huckabee has a very likable personality and easily relates many constituents, which may lead some independents who base votes on personality to vote Republican.
The reason I picked Clinton as the best option for the republican's opponent is based on my belief that many Obama supporters would just simply refuse to vote for
her. I completely understand that is 2007 and that things have changed, but I really feel that there are thousands of men and women out there who feel that a woman could not handle the Presidency. I also think Hilary lacks the personality that Obama has and would lose votes that way.
So there it is. You don't have to write out a paragraph or anything, just say what you think!
"The Big Mo'."
In the 1980 primaries, George Herbert Walker Bush edged out Ronald Reagan in the Iowa Caucus by two percentage points. When he was asked about his victory later, he claimed that he had "the Big Mo'," momentum. A word and concept that has as much bearing in politics as it does in college football, momentum can be a maker or breaker in the world of Presidential primaries.
As in anything, momentum comes from all things related to Presidential politics. Primarily, momentum in the Presidential primary race comes from victories in early primaries such as Iowa and New Hampshire, but momentum also comes from endorsements and debates. The polls (from CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire) can speak for themselves:
_____December 27-30.....January 4-5........January 5-6
Obama________30%___________33%___________39%
Clinton________34%___________33%___________29%
Edwards_______17%___________20%___________16%
Richardson______5%____________4% ____________7%
**Note: Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were not included in this poll, but were included in the CNN poll.
Between December 27-30 and January 4-5, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus, which surprisingly only boosted him 3% in the polls. However, on January 5th, the Democratic candidates participated in a debate hosted by ABC, WMUR and (yay, youth!) Facebook. Obama and Edwards were able to mostly subdue Hillary Clinton in the debate, forcing her into spots where her very visceral responses seems to have lost her the debate. (As an aside, it's my opinion that Hillary lost the debate more than any candidate won it.) As a result, Senator Obama's momentum has launched his campaign into the foreground of the Democratic nomination discussion.
Now you might be asking what about Mike Huckabee, the Republican winner of Iowa? Well, Huckabee's campaign in Iowa is not necessarily a "fluke" but it is very different. Mike Huckabee's main support comes from Christian evangelicals, a group which is a significant minority in New Hampshire, undercutting his support there. This also undercuts his momentum. However, if the first primary was in South Carolina, which has a significant evangelical population, Huckabee might find that his momentum would carry him all the way to the Republican nomination.
We can see here how momentum is huge in a tight race. Obama's momentum brought him through a dead heat with Hillary Clinton and now polls predict him gaining a huge victory over her in the primary on Tuesday, January 8th.
-----------
Now, for the fun part of my post: (for me anyways) informed predictions of the Republican and Democratic primary race!
Republicans
Iowa has gone to Huckabee, as we saw last Thursday. Based on the latest CNN polls, I predict that John McCain will win the primary race in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, I predict that Mike Huckabee will prevail in South Carolina, but Rudy Giuliani will win several Super Tuesday states, including Florida. This might make some of the late primaries very critical, and we just might get through April without a clear-cut Republican nominee, making the Republican National Convention in August very, very interesting. I believe if Mitt Romney is unable to take New Hampshire but rebounds in Michigan, his campaign will live to fight another day.
Democrats
On the Democratic side, I believe that Barack Obama will have a decisive victory in New Hampshire. After this, I believe the large African American constituency in South Carolina will carry him through to the Democratic nomination. An important thing to note is that since 1968, only 1 candidate (Democratic or Republican) has lost their party's nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina's large African American voter base will solidify Barack Obama's nomination for the Democratic Party.
As in anything, momentum comes from all things related to Presidential politics. Primarily, momentum in the Presidential primary race comes from victories in early primaries such as Iowa and New Hampshire, but momentum also comes from endorsements and debates. The polls (from CNN/WMUR/University of New Hampshire) can speak for themselves:
_____December 27-30.....January 4-5........January 5-6
Obama________30%___________33%___________39%
Clinton________34%___________33%___________29%
Edwards_______17%___________20%___________16%
Richardson______5%____________4% ____________7%
**Note: Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel were not included in this poll, but were included in the CNN poll.
Between December 27-30 and January 4-5, Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus, which surprisingly only boosted him 3% in the polls. However, on January 5th, the Democratic candidates participated in a debate hosted by ABC, WMUR and (yay, youth!) Facebook. Obama and Edwards were able to mostly subdue Hillary Clinton in the debate, forcing her into spots where her very visceral responses seems to have lost her the debate. (As an aside, it's my opinion that Hillary lost the debate more than any candidate won it.) As a result, Senator Obama's momentum has launched his campaign into the foreground of the Democratic nomination discussion.
Now you might be asking what about Mike Huckabee, the Republican winner of Iowa? Well, Huckabee's campaign in Iowa is not necessarily a "fluke" but it is very different. Mike Huckabee's main support comes from Christian evangelicals, a group which is a significant minority in New Hampshire, undercutting his support there. This also undercuts his momentum. However, if the first primary was in South Carolina, which has a significant evangelical population, Huckabee might find that his momentum would carry him all the way to the Republican nomination.
We can see here how momentum is huge in a tight race. Obama's momentum brought him through a dead heat with Hillary Clinton and now polls predict him gaining a huge victory over her in the primary on Tuesday, January 8th.
-----------
Now, for the fun part of my post: (for me anyways) informed predictions of the Republican and Democratic primary race!
Republicans
Iowa has gone to Huckabee, as we saw last Thursday. Based on the latest CNN polls, I predict that John McCain will win the primary race in New Hampshire. After New Hampshire, I predict that Mike Huckabee will prevail in South Carolina, but Rudy Giuliani will win several Super Tuesday states, including Florida. This might make some of the late primaries very critical, and we just might get through April without a clear-cut Republican nominee, making the Republican National Convention in August very, very interesting. I believe if Mitt Romney is unable to take New Hampshire but rebounds in Michigan, his campaign will live to fight another day.
Democrats
On the Democratic side, I believe that Barack Obama will have a decisive victory in New Hampshire. After this, I believe the large African American constituency in South Carolina will carry him through to the Democratic nomination. An important thing to note is that since 1968, only 1 candidate (Democratic or Republican) has lost their party's nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina's large African American voter base will solidify Barack Obama's nomination for the Democratic Party.
Candidate Quizzes
Not technically in the Know Your Candidate series, but the label seemed appropriate since some of the quizzes match you with a candidate.
Below are links to political quizzes that match you up with an ideology or a candidate. They are not perfect, and several questions are in some cases vague or too black and white, but they will hopefully give you a general idea about where you lie on the political spectrum and which candidates you are closest too.
http://www.selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460
http://www.speakout.com/VoteMatch/senate2006.asp?quiz=2008
http://www.gotoquiz.com/candidates/2008-quiz.html
http://glassbooth.org/
http://www.politicalcompass.org/test (Note, when you get a result you'll see a general picture towards the center, scroll down)
http://www.theadvocates.org/quiz.html
http://madrabbit.net/webrabbit/quizshow.html
Enjoy.
Below are links to political quizzes that match you up with an ideology or a candidate. They are not perfect, and several questions are in some cases vague or too black and white, but they will hopefully give you a general idea about where you lie on the political spectrum and which candidates you are closest too.
http://www.selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
http://www.wqad.com/Global/link.asp?L=259460
http://www.speakout.com/VoteMatch/senate2006.asp?quiz=2008
http://www.gotoquiz.com/candidates/2008-quiz.html
http://glassbooth.org/
http://www.politicalcompass.org/test (Note, when you get a result you'll see a general picture towards the center, scroll down)
http://www.theadvocates.org/quiz.html
http://madrabbit.net/webrabbit/quizshow.html
Enjoy.
Caucus Results
Well, the Iowa Caucuses have come and gone, and the eye of the nation has been on New Hampshire. However, last Saturday, January 5, there was another caucus in Wyoming for the Republicans. Mike Huckabee took Iowa for the Republicans while Wyoming went for Mitt Romney, and on the Democrat side Barack Obama took the Iowa caucuses. However, due to superdelegates, Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead so far over Obama nationally so far.
Superdelegates are guaranteed delegates from each state that aren't pledged to a single candidate. The current results on CNN come from predictions of a superdelegate's actions or statements from the superdelegate. Superdelegates are typically governors, Senators, etc.
But, without further ado, the caucus results:
Iowa (Democrat)
Obama: 38%--16
Edwards: 30%--14
Clinton: 29%--15
Richardson: 2%--0
Biden: 1%--0
Uncommitted: 0%--0
Dodd: 0%--0
Gravel: 0%--0
Kucinich: 0%--0
Iowa (Republican)
Huckabee: 34%--17
Romney: 25%--12
Thompson: 13%--3
McCain: 13%--3
Paul: 10%--2
Giuliani: 4%--0
Hunter: 1%--0
Wyoming (Republican)
Romney: 67%--8
Thompson: 25%--3
Hunter: 8%--1
Giuliani: 0%--0
Huckabee: 0%--0
McCain: 0%--0
Paul: 0%--0
I wrote these with the percentage of the vote followed by the number of delegates awarded. Here are the current national numbers, including superdelegates. The percentage of total delegates awarded so far followed by the number of delegates that candidate has. Please note that the number of delegates awarded per state is left completely up to the party and that accounts for the disparity in the number of Democratic and Republican delegates. More Democratic superdelegates have been factored in as well.
Democrat
Clinton: 56%--169
Obama: 22%--66
Edwards: 16%--47
Richardson: 6%--19
Kucinich: 0%--1
Mike Gravel: 0%--0
Joe Biden: 0%--0*
Chris Dodd: 0%--0*
*These two have already dropped out, so you probably won't hear anymore of them on this blog.
Republican
Romney: 44%--26
Huckabee: 34%--20
Thompson: 10%--6
McCain: 5%--3
Paul: 3%--2
Giuliani: 2%--1
Hunter: 2%--1
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R
---
My Take
Dems
The win in Iowa was great for Barack Obama. It puts him in the spotlight and gives him valuable momentum which he will need since Hillary Clinton already has a sizable corps of delegates on her side. John Edwards went all or nothing in Iowa, and only scraped by Clinton with a second place finish. This bad for him, seeing that he is much further behind in New Hampshire and the other early states than he was in Iowa (http://tinyurl.com/23hw94).
Richardson finished low, but his numbers elsewhere don't make it look like a comeback is in the making, so in my opinion it is safe to assume the Democratic race is now a three horse race. The race is close in South Carolina, but Nevada and Florida are currently strongly in Clinton's hands, so Obama will need strong showings in both New Hampshire and South Carolina to gain the traction necessary to carry him to the nomination.
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are already out, Mike Gravel consistently polls 0%, and Dennis Kucinich is in the 1%-3%, so they are inconsequential barring an incredible showing in New Hampshire or South Carolina if they stay that long.
GOP
Mike Huckabee won by a surprisingly large margin over Mitt Romney, and while Romney did come back with a victory in Wyoming, the country and the media is talking about New Hampshire not Wyoming, so that will serve as little more than an addition to his ultimate total. Rudy Giuliani finished poorly, as expected, but still maintains his leads nationally as well as in Nevada and Florida--the two big primaries before Super Tuesday. However, his numbers remain low in New Hampshire and South Carolina where his rivals are strong.
John McCain is leading in New Hampshire, Huckabee leads in South Carolina, and Romney maintains a strong base in each. If Huckabee can take first or a close second in both, he can gain the momentum needed. Romney's early leads have been and are eroding, and after the abysmal Iowa showing he needs a victory and needs it soon. McCain needs New Hampshire since his South Carolina position is behind Romney, Huckabee, and even Giuliani. McCain is a popular figure who is good at getting the Independent vote out, so New Hampshire can be the key to his taking the nomination.
Fred Thompson maintains respectable numbers in all four early primaries, but he has too many rivals far ahead, the next primary or two is do or die for him, even more so for Ron Paul who has decent support in New Hampshire (10%) but is in the low single digits elsewhere. New Hampshire is his pivotal battle. Duncan Hunter, while taking a delegate in Wyoming, is at 1% or 2% elsewhere and is thus inconsequential.
Final Word
Like in a playoff series, the second matchup is much closer scrutinized than the first. I think that New Hampshire will give us a better idea since the fate of so many candidates, like I said earlier, depends on this state. Until New Hampshire has voted, I don't think anyone can accurately call this race.
Early State Info:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/nevada.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
Superdelegates are guaranteed delegates from each state that aren't pledged to a single candidate. The current results on CNN come from predictions of a superdelegate's actions or statements from the superdelegate. Superdelegates are typically governors, Senators, etc.
But, without further ado, the caucus results:
Iowa (Democrat)
Obama: 38%--16
Edwards: 30%--14
Clinton: 29%--15
Richardson: 2%--0
Biden: 1%--0
Uncommitted: 0%--0
Dodd: 0%--0
Gravel: 0%--0
Kucinich: 0%--0
Iowa (Republican)
Huckabee: 34%--17
Romney: 25%--12
Thompson: 13%--3
McCain: 13%--3
Paul: 10%--2
Giuliani: 4%--0
Hunter: 1%--0
Wyoming (Republican)
Romney: 67%--8
Thompson: 25%--3
Hunter: 8%--1
Giuliani: 0%--0
Huckabee: 0%--0
McCain: 0%--0
Paul: 0%--0
I wrote these with the percentage of the vote followed by the number of delegates awarded. Here are the current national numbers, including superdelegates. The percentage of total delegates awarded so far followed by the number of delegates that candidate has. Please note that the number of delegates awarded per state is left completely up to the party and that accounts for the disparity in the number of Democratic and Republican delegates. More Democratic superdelegates have been factored in as well.
Democrat
Clinton: 56%--169
Obama: 22%--66
Edwards: 16%--47
Richardson: 6%--19
Kucinich: 0%--1
Mike Gravel: 0%--0
Joe Biden: 0%--0*
Chris Dodd: 0%--0*
*These two have already dropped out, so you probably won't hear anymore of them on this blog.
Republican
Romney: 44%--26
Huckabee: 34%--20
Thompson: 10%--6
McCain: 5%--3
Paul: 3%--2
Giuliani: 2%--1
Hunter: 2%--1
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R
---
My Take
Dems
The win in Iowa was great for Barack Obama. It puts him in the spotlight and gives him valuable momentum which he will need since Hillary Clinton already has a sizable corps of delegates on her side. John Edwards went all or nothing in Iowa, and only scraped by Clinton with a second place finish. This bad for him, seeing that he is much further behind in New Hampshire and the other early states than he was in Iowa (http://tinyurl.com/23hw94).
Richardson finished low, but his numbers elsewhere don't make it look like a comeback is in the making, so in my opinion it is safe to assume the Democratic race is now a three horse race. The race is close in South Carolina, but Nevada and Florida are currently strongly in Clinton's hands, so Obama will need strong showings in both New Hampshire and South Carolina to gain the traction necessary to carry him to the nomination.
Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are already out, Mike Gravel consistently polls 0%, and Dennis Kucinich is in the 1%-3%, so they are inconsequential barring an incredible showing in New Hampshire or South Carolina if they stay that long.
GOP
Mike Huckabee won by a surprisingly large margin over Mitt Romney, and while Romney did come back with a victory in Wyoming, the country and the media is talking about New Hampshire not Wyoming, so that will serve as little more than an addition to his ultimate total. Rudy Giuliani finished poorly, as expected, but still maintains his leads nationally as well as in Nevada and Florida--the two big primaries before Super Tuesday. However, his numbers remain low in New Hampshire and South Carolina where his rivals are strong.
John McCain is leading in New Hampshire, Huckabee leads in South Carolina, and Romney maintains a strong base in each. If Huckabee can take first or a close second in both, he can gain the momentum needed. Romney's early leads have been and are eroding, and after the abysmal Iowa showing he needs a victory and needs it soon. McCain needs New Hampshire since his South Carolina position is behind Romney, Huckabee, and even Giuliani. McCain is a popular figure who is good at getting the Independent vote out, so New Hampshire can be the key to his taking the nomination.
Fred Thompson maintains respectable numbers in all four early primaries, but he has too many rivals far ahead, the next primary or two is do or die for him, even more so for Ron Paul who has decent support in New Hampshire (10%) but is in the low single digits elsewhere. New Hampshire is his pivotal battle. Duncan Hunter, while taking a delegate in Wyoming, is at 1% or 2% elsewhere and is thus inconsequential.
Final Word
Like in a playoff series, the second matchup is much closer scrutinized than the first. I think that New Hampshire will give us a better idea since the fate of so many candidates, like I said earlier, depends on this state. Until New Hampshire has voted, I don't think anyone can accurately call this race.
Early State Info:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/iowa.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/new.hampshire.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/south.carolina.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/nevada.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/states/florida.html
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Quote de Jour
While we are all busy watching what unfolds in Iowa tonight, I would like to give our readers something to think about.
"And I hear from time to time people say, hey, wait a second, we have civil liberties we have to worry about. But don't forget the most important civil liberty I expect from my government is my right to be kept alive, and that's what we're going to have to do."
- Mitt Romney, Republican Presidential Candidate Debate, Durham, NH, 9/5/07
I am not sure on the exact context of this quote, but I have two theories regarding what message Mitt Romney was trying to convey...
1.We should expect our government to provide the necessary resources for us to be alive.
2.The government has the right to determine whether or not I should be kept alive.
Both of these occupy the far ends of our political spectrum and I would appreciate if someone could direct me into the middle.
"And I hear from time to time people say, hey, wait a second, we have civil liberties we have to worry about. But don't forget the most important civil liberty I expect from my government is my right to be kept alive, and that's what we're going to have to do."
- Mitt Romney, Republican Presidential Candidate Debate, Durham, NH, 9/5/07
I am not sure on the exact context of this quote, but I have two theories regarding what message Mitt Romney was trying to convey...
1.We should expect our government to provide the necessary resources for us to be alive.
2.The government has the right to determine whether or not I should be kept alive.
Both of these occupy the far ends of our political spectrum and I would appreciate if someone could direct me into the middle.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Our Holiday Hiatus comes to a close
Hello blog readers!
Now that the holidays are over, the blog cycle will be picking up as we move into a very exciting phase in Presidential elections: "primary season." Although primaries are not necessarily the only method of selecting a state's presidential nominee (see Chelsea's post on the Iowa Caucus), the next four months will likely determine a definite Democratic and Republican Presidential candidate and thus are hugely important in the Presidential campaigns. If you are wondering where the Know Your Candidate segment went, that will be reemerging as soon as the New Hampshire primary is over (that is Tuesday, January 8th). At that point, I will take the top 3 Republican and Democrat finishers in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary and write a section on each of them. If the top 3 finishers are different (for example, if Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain were the top 3 in New Hampshire and Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee were top 3 in Iowa) then I will write a section on all 4 of those candidates.
Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays!
Now that the holidays are over, the blog cycle will be picking up as we move into a very exciting phase in Presidential elections: "primary season." Although primaries are not necessarily the only method of selecting a state's presidential nominee (see Chelsea's post on the Iowa Caucus), the next four months will likely determine a definite Democratic and Republican Presidential candidate and thus are hugely important in the Presidential campaigns. If you are wondering where the Know Your Candidate segment went, that will be reemerging as soon as the New Hampshire primary is over (that is Tuesday, January 8th). At that point, I will take the top 3 Republican and Democrat finishers in the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary and write a section on each of them. If the top 3 finishers are different (for example, if Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain were the top 3 in New Hampshire and Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee were top 3 in Iowa) then I will write a section on all 4 of those candidates.
Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays!
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