Obama wins Mississippi Primary, Texas Caucus

Senator Barack Obama won the Mississippi primary yesterday and has been projected the winner of March 4's Texas caucus. He took 61% of the Mississippi vote and is currently at 56% in the Texas caucus with 41% reporting. Texas holds both a primary, which Senator Hillary Clinton won, and a caucus depending on district or county. Senator John McCain won the Mississippi primary and has increased his delegate count to 1,325.

Democrats (2,025 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,611 (207 superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,480 (237 superdelegates)

There are 931 delegates unawarded or uncommitted; however there are not enough pledged delegates left for either to realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time and can swing the election either way.

My Take
Although neither can clinch victory, Clinton is falling into a deeper hole and will most likely only be able to take the nomination by the superdelegate vote. Buth, this would embitter mainstream Democrats since having the party elite choose the candidate would, effectively, invalidate their vote since Obama has taken the pledged delegates from the states by a wide margin. I believe, in an effort to best preserve party unity, the superdelegates would affirm the party's popular vote, and Obama would win the nomination unless Clinton surges in the remaining primaries and begins to look like a better general election candidate. Incidentally, Clinton has lost a superdelegate through his resignation in the New York Spitzer scandal.

Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=MS
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Obama wins Wyoming Caucus; Dems debate fate of MI/FL Delegates

On Saturday, March 8, Barack Obama won the Democratic Wyoming caucus. He took 61% of the caucus to 38% for Hillary Clinton. The overall delegate total was little changed by Obama’s 7-5 victory. Mitt Romney won the Republican Wyoming caucus in January.

Overall Delegate Count (2,024 needed to win)
Barack Obama: 1,527 (1,328 pledged; 199 super)
Hillary Clinton: 1,428 (1,190 pledged; 238 super)

There are still 1,066 delegates to be awarded, however there are only around 750 pledged delegates left, and neither can realistically win enough for clinching the nomination. There are still 359 undecided superdelegates, but the 796 superdelegates can change their mind at any time.

My Take
This makes little difference. The major contest is still Pennsylvania on April 22 and Mississippi this Tuesday, but it is so long until the Pennsylvania primaries that a victory by either in Mississippi would carry no significant momentum. On a side note, this victory attests to Obama’s caucus strength since in the individual counties he won with at least 60% of the vote while receiving around 45% support in those that he lost.

Michigan/Florida
More important for the Democratic race is the fate of the delegates from Michigan and Florida. For moving their primary up past February 5, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) stripped the states of their delegates to deter other states from doing the same. Now, with the race so close, there is talk of what to do with the states’ delegates. Some say that the votes should stand, but neither campaigned in either state and Obama was not even on the Michigan ballot. Some have called for a revote, but that would cost $10 million in Michigan and $20 million in Florida. There have been also calls for a caucus or Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean has stated that mail-in ballots might be utilized to keep costs low. The question of who picks up the cost is the major stumbling block, as Governor Granholm of Michigan has stated that no Michigan tax dollars will be used for the effort, and Dean asserted that the DNC will not foot the bill to make up for Michigan’s and Florida’s decision to break party rules.

My Take
Personally, I believe that a caucus should be held in each state so cost is down and it is more of a party decision since I believe that a party’s candidate should be chosen primarily by the party, and I originally stood in solidarity with DNC in its effort to maintain some control over the nominating process. But, I think in the end funds will be gathered by some means for a primary redo. But, the race is too close to ignore two big states. However, results from a contest with only Clinton on the ballot cannot stand, and mail-ins would be a horrible mess to distribute and collect to count—not to mention coordinating mailing for a certain day by millions that live in Florida and Michigan. What do you guys think should be done?

Final Note
Ron Paul has, in effect, ended his campaign by acknowledging he will not be the nominee or that there is hope for a brokered convention in which his beliefs and principles can make it onto the Republican platform. He has vowed to continue to fight for his beliefs and for change in America.

Edit, 3/11/08-
Ron Paul has affirmed in an interview that he has, in fact, not ended his campaign.

Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WY
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/09/michigan.florida/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/florida.michigan/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/07/ron.paul/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703061.html

McCain wraps the nomination; Clinton and Obama march on

Yesterday, Tuesday, March 4th (dubbed "Crucial Tuesday" by some analysts) was a make or break day for both Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton. Tuesday's results are as follows:

Democrats

Hillary Clinton

Texas- 51% (majority)
Ohio- 54% (majority)
Vermont- 39%
Rhode Island- 58% (majority)


Barack Obama

Texas- 48%
Ohio- 44%
Vermont- 59% (majority)
Rhode Island- 41%


My analysis: Crucial Tuesday would have been the final test for Hillary Clinton; if she had lost Texas or Ohio her campaign would likely have been over and with that the Democratic primary race. Clinton's 10 point win in Ohio was a huge surge for her campaign, with that she snapped Obama's 11 primary winning streak. When the final results for Texas came in, Clinton had only a 3 point lead but she can still claim victory in the Lone Star State. Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic primaries usually use a proportional delegate count; 51% of the Texas vote means (more or less) 51% of the delegate count. Obama had 102 delegate lead before Crucial Tuesday votes, and now he commands a (CNN projected) 96 delegate lead. As you can see, although Clinton came out victorious in three of the primaries, the delegate count shifted very little due to the proportional delegate distribution. Clinton's strategy at this point will be to win Pennsylvania and use her superdelegate support to win the nomination; Obama's chief strategy at this point is to basically derail Clinton's strategy by strong campaigning for the April 22 competition in Pennsylvania.

In Texas, Hillary Clinton won a majority of Latino voters, older voters, less educated (high school or less), voters on the issue of Health Care, and voters who decided in recent weeks. Clinton's win among Latino voters is evidence of enduring Latino support from the administration of Bill Clinton. Older voters typically support Hillary Clinton and that trend has held true in every primary and caucus so far. Less educated voters in Texas voting for Clinton can be seen as a reflection of Clinton's strong working class support. Clinton's win amongst Health Care voters is a reflection of her strong and well-outlined plan for health care, and her win among voters who recently decided who to vote for is a reflection both of her strong anti-Obama ads being run in the past few days and her strong performance in last week's debate.

Obama took a majority of higher educated voters, the black vote, the youth vote, and voters on the issue if Iraq. Obama's strong performance in higher educated voters is likely a reflection of Obama's strong support on college campuses: most college voters also fall into the youth bracket. Obama's support from blacks and the youth have been a staple of his campaign and those two demographics have consistently supported Obama. Voters on Iraq favor Obama for his anti-war stance on the war since its inception and also because Clinton voted to approve the war.



GOP

John McCain (majorities in every race)

Texas- 51%
Ohio- 60%
Vermont- 72%
Rhode Island- 65%

Mike Huckabee

Texas- 38%
Ohio- 31%
Vermont- 14%
Rhode Island- 22%

Ron Paul

Texas- 5%
Ohio- 5%
Vermont- 7%
Rhode Island- 7%

My analysis: John McCain locked the nomination on Crucial Tuesday, winning all four of the states by 13 point margins (or higher) and cruising past the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination. McCain currently sits at 1, 289 projected delegates, a comfortable margin past the needed delegate count. What this means is that McCain will be able to spend the next two months focusing more on emphasizing his own strengths and downplaying his Democratic rivals while infighting in the Democratic party will detract from their own anti-McCain rhetoric. This extra time helps McCain to play up his strengths and prepare for the Democratic assault nearing the general election. Mike Huckabee, expecting greater success in the March 4 primaries, backed out of the race earlier today saying "[I] Wish it would have ended differently, but it is what it is." Strangely enough, Ron Paul still considers the race to be on, his website* has no indication of Paul dropping out of the race. In addition, today McCain received the official endorsement of President George W. Bush at the White House. Now that the primary season for the Republicans is over, I anticipate a full GOP backing of McCain. Although many right-wing pundits are still withholding support for McCain, I believe that soon they will give McCain their full endorsements and prepare along with him for the upcoming general election.


Sources used: (apologies for the inundation, but this is a complete list.)
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#TXDEM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#RI
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/huckabee/index.html
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/

Election Update - Obama soars past Clinton; McCain locks up Republican Nomination

First off, let me apologize for no significant updates on the election over the last few weeks due to the inundation of several members with other commitments. However, I hope that in the future that our response to news will be as quick and as prompt as possible.

Now then, over the past weeks, John McCain and Barack Obama used momentum from Super Tuesday to forward their campaign efforts. Obama swept through the Democratic contests in Louisiana, Nebraska (caucus), Washington, Maine (caucus), Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Wisconsin, and Hawaii (caucus)—taking the lead in delegates over rival Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton has also officially won the New Mexico primary. John McCain has also roared forward, coming within 200 delegates of a clinched nomination by taking Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Wisconsin. Rival Mike Huckabee won in the Kansas caucus, but, after nearly a month, has not caught up to Mitt Romney’s total before Romney suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain.

This Tuesday is what some are now calling “Super Tuesday 2,” when the delegate rich states of Ohio and Texas vote and can give John McCain a clinch, and, on the Dems’ side, make or break Hillary Clinton.

Democrats (2,025 to win)
Barack Obama: 1,369 (185 Superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton: 1,267 (236 Superdelegates)
There are still 1,387 delegates left.

My Take
Everything is going Obama’s way. Clinton’s big state strategy, so secure a month ago, is in jeopardy as Obama has taken the lead in Texas and is closing the gap in Ohio. Considering how rich in delegates those two states are, if Hillary doesn’t take enough to close the gap her campaign will come crashing down. She probably knows this, and her desperation can be seen by her sudden desire to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates as well as challenging Texas’s established “two step” caucus and primary set up, especially considering Obama’s strength in caucuses.

Republicans (1,191 to win)
John McCain: 1,033 (66 Unpledged RNC)
Mitt Romney(out): 255
Mike Huckabee: 247 (3 Unpledged RNC)
Ron Paul: 21
There are 824 delegates left.

My Take
The race is pretty much over. Huckabee will need nearly all the remaining delegates plus support from Romney’s delegates—not likely considering Romney’s endorsement of McCain. John McCain will the Republican nominee, and after March 4 it will be official or within a few delegates.

Links
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

Fidel Castro Steps Down as Cuba's Leader

A year and a half after temporarily handing power over to his brother Raul, Fidel Castro has announced his intention to officially step down after 49 years or rule after his communist revolution swept through Cuba. He cited his health as the primary reason for stepping down. Cuba's National Assembly is on February 24, and most likely Castro's wishes will be met and Raul will become President and Commander-in-Chief.

Cuba was a under the hand of U.S. business interests until Castro seized power from the regime of Fulgencio Batista, dictator of Cuba until 1958, and eventually instituting a communist government with close ties with the Soviet Union. Over the years, Cuba was often the target of U.S. Cold War rhetoric. Its height in international relations came in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Soviets attempted to place nuclear weapons in Cuba, minutes away from Washington, D.C.

In opposition to the communist government, the United States has accepted all refugees who have made it to U.S. soil, a 90 mile journey. Additionally, an embargo, or ban on all trade, has been levied since 1962. Cuba enjoyed the favor of Soviet governments and had many "easy money" markets and special subsidies from Moscow, but beginning in the 1980s and accelerated by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba has been suffering economically, losing nearly 90% of its markets--Communist Eastern Europe. Many have called for an end to the embargo ranging from Steven Spielberg to the late Pope John Paul II, saying it would bring an end to Castro's rule.

Castro's retirement was greeted with joy by Cubans living in Florida--many descended from refugees--as well as hope that a freer, more democratic Cuba might follow. There have been voices in the Cuban government calling for change since the downturn of the Soviet Union, resulting in a Cuban downturn.

My Take
I honestly don't believe there will be that much change in Cuba--at least while Fidel is alive. Raul fought side by side with Fidel in the 1950s and believes in what his brother believes in. He will continue to pursue a repressive policy to maintain, and, in response to the limiting of the Cuban peoples' freedom, the government will not raise the embargo anytime soon. While Fidel is still alive, he can use some backroom power to make sure his policy, and Raul's, stay in effect. Once Fidel is dead and the depression does not abate, then there is a chance that turmoil might come to Cuba. Until then, expect business to go on as "normal" as you can call it on Cuba.

What's a Superdelegate?

According dictionary.com a superdelegate is “a party leader or elected public official chosen as an uncommitted delegate to a national political convention.” Only the Democrats have superdelegates, and they are chosen by the Democratic Party based on their status within the party. Superdelegates attend the Democratic National Convention and cast their own vote for a Presidential candidate, and do not necessarily have to follow the popular vote. Some of Michigan’s Superdelegates include Governor Granholm, U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow and U.S. Rep. John Dingell.

In an election this close, the superdelegate's role becomes more deciding than it does symbolic. The margin of defeat in the delegates (gained by primary elections) between Obama and Clinton right now is less that the amount of superdelegates (719) that will be at the Convention in late August.

A CNN report concluded that “While divided over which candidate to support, Democrats are largely agreed that the battle over delegates needs to be resolved without a sense that superdelegates -- which include Democratic lawmakers, governors, and other VIPs -- are making a decision that opposes what voters want.”

If the superdelegates actually ended up making the difference, or reversing the decision on the popular vote in the primaries, would that not be considered undemocratic? There is also a concern among party members that delegates may work out deals with each other, trying to swing the vote to one candidate. On the other hand, some believe superdelegates will follow the interest of their constituents.

So what do you think? Should superdelegates hold this much power? Or should the popular vote in the Primary hold up at the National Convention?

Sources:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/17/2008.dems/index.html

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

Quote de Jour

"Those who are ready to sacrifice freedom for security ultimately will lose both."
-Abraham Lincoln